How Would the US Fare with an Ontario Electricity Surcharge or Cutoff?

March 12, 2025 TruthUSA

Ontario had a net export of 6,269 GWh of power to New York in 2024.

News Analysis

Ontario’s decision to put a 25 percent surcharge on electricity exports to the United States on March 10 caused enough attention south of the border for U.S. President Donald Trump to vow to double the 25 percent aluminum and steel tariffs on Canada scheduled for March 12.

The province’s move, had it continued, would have racked up electricity bills to differing degrees in the three states that Ontario exports energy to: New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. But what would have been more concerning for the reliability of the grid is if Ontario Premier Doug Ford had gone further and followed through with his threat to cut off electricity altogether in response to U.S. tariffs.

The drama ended a day later, on March 11, with Ontario dropping the surcharge and the United States removing the additional 25 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel, and both sides claiming victory.

Ford said he decided to suspend the surcharge after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick offered him an “olive branch,” agreeing to meet on March 13 to discuss the USMCA free trade deal moving forward. The White House, for its part, said Trump used the “leverage of the American economy” to get Ontario to drop the tax and thus “deliver a win for the American people.”

Electricity Export Tax

Ford had said on March 10 that the 25 percent export tax, valued at $10 per megawatt-hour, would net Ontario an extra $300,000 to $400,000 per day, while adding roughly $100 per month to the impacted Americans’ bills.

The province said the surcharge, which ultimately only lasted a day, would affect 1.5 million homes and businesses in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), which oversees the state’s electric grid, said in a March 10 statement that it was analyzing the situation and working with Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) “to ensure a reliable grid.”

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