Is the New PM Carney Planning to Call for an Election Soon?

News Analysis

Mark Carney has been sworn in as the new prime minister and now the question is whether he will call an early election, and if so, when that will be.

Carney is the first Canadian prime minister to have never held elected office and he faces opposition parties intent on bringing down the government in the midst of a trade conflict with the United States.

The prime minister will be looking to face the electorate to win a seat in the House of Commons and obtain a stronger mandate to solidify his legitimacy. The best time to do so could be now, according to several experts who spoke with The Epoch Times, to capitalize on the momentum of his Liberal leadership win.

After being sworn in at Rideau Hall on March 14, Carney did not reveal his specific plan for an election, but he dropped a hint that an announcement is forthcoming.

Canadians “certainly should expect to go to the polls before November,” Carney told reporters. The law mandates a federal election be held in October at the latest.

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He added there will be “other news in the coming days with respect to ensuring that we have as strong a mandate that is needed for the time.”

Carney didn’t reveal in which riding he intends to run when asked by reporters whether he would consider doing so in Alberta, given the province isn’t represented in his cabinet.

Carney was born in the Northwest Territories and raised in Edmonton. He noted how new Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland is from Alberta but represents a Toronto riding.

“I could give you many examples of the pan-Canadian nature of this cabinet,” he said. Carney’s new cabinet includes 24 ministers including himself, down from 37 under his predecessor Justin Trudeau.

Momentum

Charles Bird, Liberal strategist and principal at public affairs firm Earnscliffe Strategies, said Carney’s cabinet could be in place for a very short time.

“We could be into an election campaign in a week or so,” Bird said in an interview, adding there’s “every reason to think” Carney will ask the governor general to dissolve Parliament before prorogation ends on March 24. This means a general election would take place in late April or early May.

Trudeau had prorogued Parliament when he announced his intention to step down on Jan. 6, citing the need for a “reset” in the House of Commons. The Liberal Party leadership race took place during Parliament’s suspension and the party steadily gained ground in the polls, closing the previously wide gap of around 20 points with the Conservatives.

Bird mentioned polling as a key factor which could influence Carney to call an election in short order.

“Recent polling suggests that the Liberals are experiencing something between an uptick and an upsurge,” he said. Bird added this could be attributed to a view among voters that Carney is uniquely positioned to handle the Trump administration given his previous role as central banker in Canada and England during previous crises.

“He is uniquely credentialed in terms of his ability to deal both domestically and on the international stage when it comes to situations like the one we face with the Americans,” Bird said. Conservatives have said their rival had a dismal record during those crises, and it was the Harper government who handled the financial crisis in Canada.

The U.S. administration imposed two sets of tariffs on Canada this month, one related to border security and fentanyl trafficking concerns, and the other on steel and aluminum. Canada has responded with a surtax targeting nearly $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Timing

Stephen LeDrew, political pundit and former president of the Liberal Party during the Jean Chrétien era, said Liberals will also want to run an early campaign but for a different reason.

“I think they want to get the campaign out there and over with before people get to really know the new prime minister,” LeDrew said in an interview.

LeDrew said Carney is “unknown” right now and has a “certain appeal.” He added, however, that Carney has not done well as a “retail politician” and made some mistakes during the campaign by overselling his achievements.

The Liberal Party knows that, LeDrew said, and that’s “maybe why they want to have him up fast, get this thing over with, and hope that we can squeak through.”

On the campaign trail, Carney said he had worked with then-Finance Minister Paul Martin to balance the budget, but he was not working in the public service at the time when Martin reached deficit-zero in 1998.

The Conservatives also criticized him for saying he was not with Brookfield Asset Management when the company moved its headquarters to the United States, while a letter signed by him as chair later showed he was informing shareholders of the move. Carney said he should have been more “precise” with his wording about not being with the company at the time.

Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, also predicts the Liberals will try to capitalize on their momentum by calling an election right away.

Wiseman said the Liberals will seek to avoid re-opening Parliament and face a non-confidence vote from opposition parties.

“If Parliament reconvenes, [Carney’s] going to be defeated, and that’s humiliating for the government,” Wiseman said in an interview.

That’s unless the NDP tries to make a deal with Carney, Wiseman added, before suggesting Carney “doesn’t want to make a deal, because the Liberals right now feel they have momentum, they’ve gone up in the polls, and they think that can continue.”

Wiseman said the moment to dissolve Parliament and set the election date is contingent on the Liberal Party making sure they have candidates in every riding.