Liberals Gain Ground in Polls as Leadership Race Begins, Tories Maintain Double-Digit Lead

January 29, 2025 TruthUSA

As the Liberal leadership race gets underway, support for the party has been rekindled, though the Conservatives continue to maintain a strong lead, a new survey says.

The Angus Reid Institute survey published Jan. 27, says that if Mark Carney takes the helm, the Liberals would garner 29 percent of voter support, compared to 24 percent under Chrystia Freeland. This marks an improvement for the Liberals from the low of 16 percent support recorded shortly before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement.

The Conservatives maintain a comfortable lead in national support, however, holding 43 percent with a Carney-led Liberal Party and 44 percent with Freeland as Liberal leader.

The findings echo a Jan. 19 survey by Abacus Data, which found that 46 percent of voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives if an election where held immediately, while the Liberals would garner 20 percent support and the NDP 19 percent.

Meanwhile, an earlier Angus Reid survey, published Jan. 3—just days before Trudeau’s resignation announcement—said that the party would fare better with Freeland at the helm, with 19 percent of voters saying they were more likely to support her, followed by 11 percent who would back Carney. The former deputy prime minister and finance minister resigned from the cabinet in December, saying in a letter that she had been “at odds” with Trudeau on fiscal policies amid tariff threats from the United States. Her departure set off a series of events that eventually led to Trudeau’s resignation announcement.

The survey found that Carney attracts more support in certain regions compared to Freeland, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario, where the Liberals would regain support, moving the party back to second place after previously falling to third behind the NDP, according to an earlier Angus Reid survey. Both Carney and Freeland struggle in the Prairie provinces, where the Conservatives maintain commanding leads.

When examining voter support by age and gender, Carney does better with older demographics, especially men aged 35 and over. In contrast, Freeland sees stronger backing among women aged 35 to 54, a demographic where she outperforms Carney by a narrow margin.

The survey found that younger men, particularly those aged 35 to 54, are less likely to support either of the Liberal leader hopefuls, opting instead to vote for the Conservatives. Men aged 18 to 34 are more likely to vote for the Conservatives in a race against a Freeland-led Liberal Party, with 56 percent supporting the Tories, compared to just 36 percent when the Tories face off against a Carney-led Liberal Party.

Top Concerns

While affordability topped the list of concerns among voters (58 percent), health care (40 percent), and housing (29 percent) rounded out the top three issues cited by respondents. The survey also found a divide in Liberal voter perspectives under scenarios where either Carney or Freeland wins the leadership race. Carney’s supporters tend to prioritize inflation (59 percent) more than Freeland’s supporters (49 percent), who place a higher emphasis on health care.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made affordability a central part of his platform, advocating for lower taxes and vowing to cancel the carbon tax. The Tories have pointed to the Liberal candidates’ past support for the carbon tax, which some, including Freeland, are now attempting to distance themselves from.

Freeland has said that it’s important to “fight against climate change,” but added that the government must listen to Canadians’ concerns on carbon pricing, noting it has become an unpopular policy. Meanwhile, Carney has said that carbon pricing could make the Canadian economy “more competitive” and create “more sustainable jobs,” while pledging to work on a solution that addresses the high cost of living.

The Angus Reid survey was conducted online from Jan. 24 to 27, 2025, polling 1,960 Canadian adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Canadian Press contributed to this report.

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