Libertarian Ron Paul Cautionary of Milei’s Plan to Abolish Argentina’s Central Bank
Intense opposition from within the government could hamper Mr. Milei’s attempt to tear down the institution.Argentine President-elect Javier Milei’s plan to abolish the central bank might not be a “slam dunk,” cautioned former Congressman and three-time presidential candidate Ron Paul.The libertarian economist ran on a campaign of dismantling the central bank, dollarizing Argentina’s economy, and shrinking the size and scope of government. While some media reports suggest that Mr. Milei could be in the early stages of backtracking on some of his proposals, his team has insisted that this type of “shock therapy” is “non-negotiable.”Some observers do not believe it will be guaranteed that Mr. Milei can tear down the institution because of the intense opposition from within the government.”There’ll be some hysterical reactions to that because that’s what they depend on. They depend on central economic planning, manipulating interest rates, yelling people out, and all these things are under these conditions,” Mr. Paul told The Epoch Times. “I don’t think it’s a slam dunk.”Echoing the sentiments of other libertarian-leaning economic experts, the best-selling author of “End the Fed” and “The Revolution: A Manifesto” thinks that transitioning from the peso to the dollar will not be as challenging because the South American nation no longer has a functioning currency.The peso has lost much of its value against the U.S. dollar while the country has endured a 143 percent inflation rate. Additionally, Argentine investors are bracing for a 44 percent devaluation of the nation’s official exchange rate after Mr. Milei is inaugurated.Related StoriesExperts purport that abandoning the peso for the dollar can stabilize a sinking ship. However, Mr. Paul warned that embracing the greenback also presents some future issues for Buenos Aires.”It would make them somewhat vulnerable because of the attacks on the dollar,” Mr. Paul explained. “If the dollar gets really banged around, that would hurt the Argentinians just as well. So, it would be a tricky operation.”Over the past 18 months, the global de-dollarization campaign, a coordinated worldwide effort to eviscerate the dollar hegemony, has entered into overdrive. Although the buck remains the international reserve currency, several countries, particularly China and Russia, have employed various methods to dethrone the dollar. So far, the most widely used tool has consisted of settling bilateral trade in local currencies.In the end, the principle should be to abolish the central bank and view money as either gold or silver, Mr. Paul noted. A New Central Bank Chief The president-elect’s office confirmed that Mr. Milei appointed Santiago Bausili as the new central bank chief. Mr. Bausili is a close ally of incoming Minister of the Economy Luis Caputo. His nomination needs to be approved by the Senate.
Reports suggest that Mr. Milei is potentially adopting a more gradual form of governing, although he stated that he would not accept “gradualism” for his unconventional public policy pursuits. However, reports insinuate that the economy team being built signals the prioritization of fiscal reforms instead of eradicating a monetary body and adopting the U.S. dollar.Mr. Bausili’s appointment could prove essential for an incoming government that could be working out a new deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).In 2019, he led a team that completed an agreement with the IMF, which current President Alberto Fernandez later dropped. Former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) speaks at the Bitcoin 2021 Convention, a cryptocurrency conference held at the Mana Convention Center in Wynwood in Miami, Florida, on June 4, 2021. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)Last month, Mr. Milei held a virtual meeting with IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva, confirming on X, formerly known as Twitter that the global institution “showed its cooperation to fund the structural solutions that Argentina needs.” She reiterated the IMF’s commitment “to support efforts to durably reduce inflation, improve public finances, and raise private-sector-led growth.”Argentina is presently the IMF’s largest debtor, owing approximately $45 billion.
Stagflation Fears
Mr. Milei has stated that he will call Congress into an extraordinary session on Dec. 11, one day after his inauguration. He will present lawmakers with his plans to bolster the country’s finances.Because of these “fiscal adjustments,” Mr. Milei told a local radio station last week that the economy could face stagflation—a blend of high inflation and stagnating growth—as it could take as long as 24 months to bring inflation under control.”There is going to be stagflation, because when you do a fiscal reordering, it will have a negative impact on economic activity,” he said. “What we are doing is creating all mechanisms to stop the emission of money so that in a lapse of 18 to 24 months we end inflation.”Economists say Argentina will slip into a recession next year as the economy is projected to contract as much as 3.5 percent.As for his dollarization efforts, they might also be on the backburner because of the central bank’s depleted foreign reserves. For the past decade, the institution has imposed capital controls as per the edict from then-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. This policy limited the ability to buy and sell foreign currency and exacerbated economic distortions. Critics called these measures an “instrument of torture.”Dollarization might appear to be a tool for stability, but some bank analysts assert that rebuilding the central bank’s reserves by offsetting losses and creating incentives should be the primary objective.With triple-digit inflation running wild and ravaging households across the country, Cato Institute’s Gabriela Calderon de Burgos and Daniel Raisbeck wrote in a paper this past summer that “dollarization should continue to be at the forefront of the political debate.”
