Members of Parliament to Encounter Fresh Political Realities Upon Their Arrival in Ottawa

On Monday Parliamentarians will return to the familiar stone walls of West Block in Ottawa to find the political landscape has shifted significantly.

When they last gathered in the capital, the Liberals faced poor prospects after lingering in the polls for over a year. They were secure, however, knowing that the New Democrats would prevent them from falling before tabling the next budget, at least.

But the summer brought several seismic shifts, turning the government into a true minority that is now susceptible to an election at any time.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh recently withdrew from a political pact with the government and is already challenged by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to vote non-confidence against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his party.

The NDP’s electoral promise does not seem to have improved significantly despite obtaining some legislation and programs from the Liberals as part of the deal, such as a national dental-care plan and a pharmacare bill currently progressing through the Senate.

These new dynamics create opportunities for the Bloc Québécois, as leader Yves-François Blanchet has signaled a willingness to negotiate with the Liberals for demands benefiting Quebec.

Related Stories

The Bloc’s conditions include the Liberals endorsing the party’s private member’s Bill C-319, which aims to equalize pensions for seniors aged 65 to 74 with those aged 75 and over.

The Bloc requires a royal recommendation from a government minister to approve the financial implications of the bill and pass it through the House.

Meanwhile, the Liberals have stated they are disregarding the political maneuvers opposition parties are planning and are focusing on “delivering for Canadians.”

Although the Liberals prefer to advance their key legislation through the House like their pharmacare bill and controversial Online Harms Act, other parties could obstruct that progress.

Since severing ties with the Liberals, Singh has been offering harsher criticism of the prime minister and his government. However, party insiders suggest he is not any more eager for an election than Trudeau at the moment.

All parties will face tests on Monday after MPs depart for the evening, waiting anxiously for the results of two crucial byelections.

Both the NDP and the Liberals are striving to hold onto their strongholds against apparent political challenges. The results will set the tone in Parliament for the rest of the season.

The NDP is defending against the Conservatives under Poilievre in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood — Transcona, while the Liberals are in a three-way race against the NDP and the Bloc in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.

“I am excited for the discussions we’re having in (LaSalle — Émard — Verdun) this weekend, and I am also looking forward to welcoming Laura Palestini to Ottawa on Monday,” Trudeau expressed optimistically about his Liberal candidate in the Montreal riding on Friday.

After facing demands from Liberal party supporters to step down as leader following a byelection loss in Toronto — St. Paul’s in June, Trudeau’s leadership position seemed more secure over the summer.

Although Liberal MPs denied that the race in Montreal is a referendum on his leadership while strategizing in Nanaimo last week, that seems to be the prevailing view in Ottawa.

If Singh loses the long-held NDP seat in Winnipeg and fails to capture the Montreal riding from the Liberals, he may face similar scrutiny.

The Conservatives are gathering in Ottawa this weekend to strategize for the fall session and explore ways to pressure their opponents into ending the session prematurely.