Minor Party Surge May Offer Dutton a Slim Chance at PM
Liberal Leader Peter Dutton is facing a critical moment in his quest for the Australian election, yet a surge in protest votes against the major parties might just elevate his chances of becoming Prime Minister.
As the election approaches with only four days until the polls close, the opposition leader is determined to challenge national polling trends in an attempt to capture a surprising win and become Australia’s 32nd prime minister, focusing on key marginal seats.
Despite the significant hurdle of unseating Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, former media chief to Scott Morrison, Andrew Carswell, believes a route to victory still exists for Dutton’s coalition.
“The path is limited, and it’s shrinking daily; however, I think it’s best to disregard the current established polls since what we observe on Saturday will likely differ,” he remarked to AAP.
“While Labor is indeed favored to head a minority government, the reality will be closer than anticipated.”
A recent Roy Morgan poll indicated that Labor is still well-positioned to secure a majority government, leading 53 to 47 percent on a two-party preferred basis, even though the coalition has slightly improved its standing.
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Carswell noted that securing a majority government will be “incredibly challenging” for the coalition, but an increase in backing for right-leaning minor parties may revert to the opposition.
“The preference flows from One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots, and other centre-right minor parties to the coalition are significantly higher than they were in 2022,” he explained.
“One Nation acts as a protest party, generally favoring preferences away from ruling administrations, and this could yield surprising outcomes in certain electoral seats come election night.”
The latest YouGov poll shows One Nation achieving a 10.5 percent primary vote, while Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots records a 2 percent share.
Hanson’s party has more than doubled its primary vote since the 2022 election, where it garnered just below 5 percent.
In various electorates, coalition how-to-vote instructions have advised supporters to rank One Nation second on their ballots.
Carswell believes the coalition’s prospects in Victoria remain robust, particularly in outer-suburban districts where cost-of-living challenges are most pronounced.
“The further from the CBD, the more potential for surprises on election night in outer suburban areas,” he indicated.
Albanese will kick off Tuesday campaigning in Brisbane, with Labor aiming for gains, while Dutton will begin the day in Sydney.
