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New Report Warns NZ Media Could Be Extinct in 3 Years Without Urgent Action


Gavin Ellis, a former editor of the country’s largest newspaper and a professor of journalism, suggests imposing a levy on digital platforms to support media.

One of New Zealand’s most senior journalism figures, Gavin Ellis, has issued a clear warning to the government: take action within three years to assist the media, or witness its potential “extinction.”

The stark prediction is outlined in a recent report, If not journalists, then who? released by the Centre for Informed Futures, an independent think tank and research center based at the University of Auckland and led by Sir Peter Gluckman, the former Prime Minister’s science advisor.

Sir Peter characterizes the current state of New Zealand’s media landscape, influenced by technological, consumer preference, and economic challenges, as “a truly wicked and existential problem of how to ensure trustworthy information is accessible to our citizens.”

The nation cannot afford to “turn a blind eye to the situation, idly watch the decline of our Fourth Estate. The dialogue is urgent,” he emphasized.

Mr. Ellis, a former editor-in-chief at the New Zealand Herald and a long-time media commentator on Radio New Zealand, is a research fellow at the Centre for Informed Futures.

No Broadcast Television “Within Years”

The report foresees, “A mix of predation, media alterations, harmful behavior, and adaptive constraints are pushing the spheres in which journalism is created to a brink where their potential extinction could be measured in years instead of decades.”

“In the next three years, we may face no mainstream broadcast television, depleted newsrooms, closures of news media, and portions of the population being marginalized due to cost or age. The void left by diminishing journalism may be filled with misinformation. The social and political risks are considerable.”

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Engaging with representatives from 17 media organizations, the report emphasizes the critical need to “address significant distortions caused by the dominance of the market by unregulated transnational digital platforms” and to discover “sustainable—and publicly and politically acceptable—methods of supporting diverse media.”

Mr. Ellis proposes amending the Digital Services Tax Bill (currently in Parliament) to enable the implementation of a levy on digital platforms to establish a dedicated fund for media support.

“This is not about granting funds to the media,” he stressed, “but compensating media for what has been taken away from them … and what will be taken in the future. This is a debt owed to them.”

“The purpose of that bill is to counteract the tax avoidance strategies utilized by these platforms on a large scale. By simply modifying it to allocate an additional amount to the media … that would align with actions taken in other countries.”

For instance, Austria imposes a five percent levy on digital advertising; a similar fee in New Zealand could generate an estimated $85 to $90 million annually.

The report also suggests tax adjustments to assist “marginally profitable and non-profit media outlets devoted to public interest journalism … at national, regional, local, and even hyper-local levels.”

The previous Ardern Labour government introduced a $55 million Public Interest Journalism Fund (PIJF) during the pandemic, leading to accusations of attempting to purchase compliance from the media. Mr. Ellis differentiates his proposal from the PIJF.

“The PIJF was subjected to a deliberate and highly successful campaign of misinformation,” he said.

“No media outlets were bribed by the government in any instance—but we must acknowledge the impact it had. Distribution of funds from a levy must be completely transparent and completely independent of government.”

He highlighted the need for the public to understand that this is recompense for the services provided by news media, not a handout.

“Additionally, the government should have no authority over how those funds are distributed or used,” he added.

“The necessity to hold power accountable will remain unchanged. We will be left facing the repercussions of a simple (unanswered) inquiry: If not journalists, then who?”



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