Labour Would Win Election With 154-Seat Majority, Poll Suggests

Poll Suggests Labour Could Secure 154-Seat Majority in Election Victory

April 5, 2024 TruthUSA

If an election were held tomorrow, Labour would win 403 seats, a result comparable to Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 victory, while the Conservatives would only secure 155 seats.

According to a recent poll by YouGov published on Wednesday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing a potential election defeat worse than Sir John Major’s loss to Sir Tony Blair in 1997. The poll predicts that Labour would win 403 seats, significantly more than the Conservatives’ projected 155.

The poll suggests that the Conservative Party’s electoral situation is deteriorating as the UK approaches a General Election, with a notable decrease in the number of seats they are expected to win from previous predictions.

The poll draws parallels to the 1997 General Election where Sir Tony Blair led Labour to victory with 418 seats, while the Conservatives under then-Prime Minister Major only secured 165 seats.

Recent projections by YouGov indicate that several major Conservative figures are at risk of losing their seats, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, former Commons leader Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, former Conservative Party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing, and Communities Michael Gove.

‘Several’ Major Tory Figures Could Lose Seats

The poll’s model suggests that Labour is poised to gain a significant number of seats, indicating a potential victory similar to Blair’s 1997 win, just five years after the Conservatives achieved a supermajority in the 2019 General Election under Boris Johnson’s leadership.

YouGov’s data also indicates that several Red Wall seats, which were won by the Conservatives in the 2019 election, are likely to revert to Labour, further impacting the Conservative Party’s performance in the upcoming election.

Furthermore, despite increasing voter intention share, Reform UK is not projected to win any seats in the election, trailing behind other major parties in key constituencies.

Reform UK Not Projected to Win Any Seats

YouGov’s analysis reveals that Reform UK is not competitive in any constituency, even though they place second in some seats. Labour leads in most constituencies, indicating a challenging scenario for Reform UK in the upcoming election.

99 MPs Announce Intention to Stand Down

Recent developments have seen two ministers resigning, triggering a mini-Cabinet reshuffle. Both ministers, Robert Halfon and James Heappey, have announced their intention to step down at the next election, adding to the number of Conservative MPs who will not seek reelection.

Across the House of Commons, a significant number of MPs, including prominent Tories like former Prime Minister Theresa May, former Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, and former Health Secretary Matt Hancock, have announced their intention to stand down at the next General Election.

Compared to previous election cycles, the number of MPs standing down is not unusually high, with historical averages indicating a similar trend. The last possible date for an election is Jan 28, 2025.

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