Poll Suggests Reform UK Could Secure 18 Seats in General Election
A recent poll conducted using multi-level regression and post-stratification methodology indicates that Labour is poised to secure a majority of 250 seats in Parliament.
According to an opinion poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, Reform UK could potentially win around 18 seats, including those targeted by Nigel Farage, Richard Tice, and former Conservative MP Lee Anderson.
The poll, commissioned by the Daily Mirror and GB News, suggests a landslide victory for Labour with a projected majority of 250 seats, surpassing the scope of John Major’s defeat in 1997.
The pollsters have indicated that Labour’s lead is approximately 20 percent, significantly higher than the 13 percent lead the party had under Tony Blair in 1997, resulting in a majority of 179 seats back then.
Furthermore, the poll predicts a significant loss for the Conservatives, potentially resulting in fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats who could become the official Opposition.
The poll also forecasts an increase in Green Party MPs from one to four, with specific seats like Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, North Herefordshire, and Waveney Valley potentially being won by the Greens.
Over 19,000 individuals were surveyed between June 14 and June 24, 2024, utilizing multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) methodology to project the outcome of each seat.
Corbyn Expected To Secure Victory As Independent
Among the localized predictions made by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, is the prediction of former Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn winning in Islington North as an independent candidate.
The poll also predicts that a total of 22 members of Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet are likely to lose their seats, including the Prime Minister himself.
If Rishi Sunak, who won by a majority of 27,210 in the last election, were to lose his seat, he would be the first sitting Prime Minister to do so.
Additional Cabinet Ministers at risk of losing their seats to Labour include Oliver Dowden, Kemi Badenoch, Grant Shapps, and Penny Mordaunt.
According to the poll, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chairman, may also be defeated in Basildon and Billericay following the abolition of his County Durham seat.
The prediction includes Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk losing to the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK possibly defeating Veterans’ Minister Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View.
Earlier this year, Mr. Mercer was cautioned by a judge regarding the consequences of withholding information at an independent inquiry into Afghanistan.
Among the Cabinet Ministers expected to retain their seats are Home Secretary James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat who withdrew from the leadership race in 2022.
Hague Raises Concerns About ‘Supermajority’ Impact
Former Conservative Party Leader William Hague expressed concerns in a column in The Times, warning about the consequences of a potential Labour supermajority in Parliament.
Mr. Hague emphasized the challenges faced during his leadership in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997, highlighting the difficulty of maintaining effective opposition in such scenarios.
Contrary to some arguments, CEO Hannah White of the Institute for Government argued in an article that a ‘supermajority’ exceeding 200 seats for Labour would not significantly alter the dynamics of parliamentary governance.
She stressed that the rules and structures of the House of Commons inherently favor the ruling party, making the parliamentary system executive-dominated.
