Pollster finds Tories and Bloc Québécois neck and neck in Quebec, with immigration a factor

August 13, 2024 TruthUSA

A recent survey reveals that the Conservative Party is now closely tied with the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, a shift that may be linked to changing attitudes towards immigration, according to the pollster.

Abacus Data released its most recent national poll on August 11, maintaining some long-standing trends such as a strong lead for the Tories. Currently, if an election were held, 43 percent of committed voters would choose the Conservatives, while 23 percent would opt for the Liberals.

While the Conservatives continue to lead nationally, they are also making progress in Quebec, where they have secured 31 percent of committed voter intentions compared to the Bloc’s 30 percent.

Abacus CEO David Coletto mentioned in a related Substack post that it has been a while since a poll has shown such strong support for the Tories in Quebec.

Coletto wrote, “The outcome made me and others ponder if it was due to normal sampling error or if a real shift was occurring in Quebec,” emphasizing the need for caution due to the small sample size.

The pollster highlighted the rapid change in attitudes towards immigration over the past 14 months, with concerns about affordability leading to a “scarcity mindset.”

Coletto stated, “The connection between the affordability crisis and the rise in anti-immigration sentiment is significant.”

The latest Abacus survey indicates that one out of four Canadians views immigration as a top issue. The cost of living tops the list of important concerns in Canada at 64 percent, followed by health care at 44 percent, housing at 43 percent, and the economy at 32 percent.

Immigration, climate change, and the environment are tied for the fifth position at 25 percent.

Concerns about immigration rise to 35 percent among Quebec residents, the highest level across provinces and regions. Coletto attributed this to factors like preserving Quebec’s culture and language.

He suggested that this shift in views on immigration could benefit the Conservatives in Quebec.

Coletto noted that among the 35 percent of Quebecers prioritizing immigration, 47 percent support the Tories, 27 percent support the Bloc, and 18 percent support the Liberals.

For Quebec residents not focusing on immigration, a larger percentage support the Bloc (32 percent) followed by the Liberals (27 percent) and the Conservatives (22 percent).

Coletto emphasized, “This clearly indicates that immigration views could impact support in Quebec.”

He stated that the issue is not peripheral but could be a driving force in the province, explaining why Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is raising concerns about it.

Poilievre has been addressing issues related to affordability and crime, with occasional criticism of Ottawa’s immigration policies. When asked about rising youth unemployment and temporary foreign workers, he challenged the government to address the situation.

Statistics Canada highlighted in its most recent Labour Force Survey that youth unemployment outside of the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 is at its highest since 2012 (14.2 percent). The agency also reported over 1.6 million individuals holding work permits in the second quarter of 2024.

Poilievre expressed his views on the temporary foreign worker program, emphasizing that it should not exploit workers from poor countries to the detriment of Canadians.

In response to this trend, Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) announced measures to enforce program rules more strictly to combat fraud and abuse, with Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault hinting at potential restrictions.

Poilievre Impressions

Apart from Quebec developments, Abacus also noted an increase in positive perceptions of Poilievre and a growing Conservative voter pool.

The Conservative support is 16 points higher than the Liberals, with 55 percent of respondents open to voting for the Tories compared to 39 percent for the Liberals.

Positive opinions of Poilievre have reached 42 percent, the highest recorded by Abacus. Conversely, 35 percent hold negative views. Poilievre’s positive impressions increased over the summer, resulting in the highest net score measured by Abacus.

Perceptions of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remained unchanged, with 25 percent viewing him positively and 58 percent negatively. Negative views have remained consistent between 57 and 59 percent since the beginning of the year.

The survey also indicated that 84 percent of respondents are open to political change, with 53 percent believing there is a viable alternative to the ruling Liberals.

Source link