Renowned Professor Labels ‘Net-Zero’ Emissions Plan as Impractical
A renowned Canadian professor and public policy commentator has expressed skepticism about the global plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, deeming it “unrealistic” for Canada and other nations to meet this target within the specified timeline.
Mr. Smil highlighted challenges such as the high costs associated with infrastructure changes, increased mining for resources, and the financial burden on Western countries to support low-income nations in building new energy infrastructure.
Speaking in a Fraser Institute news release, Mr. Smil emphasized, “The plan to phase out fossil fuels and achieve a net-zero economy faces significant economic, political, and practical obstacles.”
The report suggests that Canada and other high-income countries would need to allocate at least 20 percent of their GDP to accomplish the net-zero emissions goal.
Notably, Ottawa has outlined a strategy to achieve net zero by 2050, aiming for a 40 to 45 percent reduction in emissions by 2030.
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Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource studies at the Fraser Institute, cautioned, “Policymakers need to confront reality—while reducing our dependence on fossil fuels is a commendable long-term objective, it cannot be achieved quickly or inexpensively.”
Mr. Smil highlighted that global fossil fuel consumption had risen by 55 percent from 1997 to 2023, underscoring the complexities of transitioning away from current energy systems.
He added, “The current energy networks are intricate, demanding constant maintenance and upgrades, with considerable costs. Global energy transitions are intricate, multifaceted, prolonged, and largely unpredictable in their specifics. Therefore, the [net-zero] target, while aspirational, remains impractical.”
Electric Vehicles
Mr. Smil also criticized Ottawa’s emphasis on increasing electric vehicles (EVs) as part of Canada’s net-zero emissions strategy.
Transport Canada reports a steady growth in zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), with 8.9 percent of light-duty vehicle sales being ZEVs, up from 5.6 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2020.
By 2026, the government aims to have 20 percent of new light-duty vehicles as ZEVs, increasing to 60 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035.
However, the transition to EVs faces resource challenges, with Mr. Smil highlighting the substantial increase in lithium and other essential minerals required for the plan, raising both cost and practicality concerns.
Mr. Smil’s report states, “Replacing the current 1.35 billion gasoline and diesel vehicles with EVs and meeting the expanded market demand (projected at 2.2 billion cars by 2050) would necessitate almost 150 million tons more copper over the next 27 years—equivalent to over seven years’ worth of today’s annual copper extraction for various industrial purposes.”
Political Divide
The issue of emissions reduction has led to a divide between the federal government and certain provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith believes that Ottawa’s oil and gas regulations could end up in the Supreme Court of Canada.
Expressing her views, she stated
Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe has also raised concerns about the economic impacts of federal regulations.
Both provinces assert that Ottawa’s net-zero targets overstep their jurisdiction, leading them to enact legislation affirming their autonomy.
Jennifer Cowan contributed to this report.
