Report Claims Nearly 1 Million Non-Permanent Residents in Canada are Underestimated

The actual number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) in Canada could be around one million higher than the official figure and may be exacerbating the country’s housing shortages, according to a new report. 

An Aug. 30 CIBC report, “Counting heads in Canada — a conundrum,” said that since 2013, the official forecast for Canada’s population used for planning purposes was 38.7 million, but is actually closer to 40.2 million.

“We suggest that the official number of NPRs that is widely quoted and used for planning purposes undercounts the actual number of NPRs residing in Canada by close to one million. That means that any policy aimed at capping the number of NPRs is more urgent than perceived,” said the report. 

The report cited two measurement issues with respect to counting NPRs, suggesting the size of the miss could be closer to 2.5 million. The first issue was a 2011 census undercounting of NPRs by more than 40 percent.

“No less than 1.1 million of that 1.5 million forecast miss was due to a much larger than expected increase in the number of NPRs, and most of the remaining miss was due to stronger than expected immigration,” it said.

The second issue is that Statistics Canada’s system assumes temporary resident (TR) visa holders have left the country 30 days after the expiry of their visa. Instead, the majority remain, as they wait to apply for permanent residency.

“There is no known administrative action by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) to remove these expired TR visa holders from Canada. Nor is there a known mechanism to withdraw their employment or tax slip issuances by the Canada Revenue Agency,” said the report.

The report notes many expired TR visa holders could not return to their home countries in 2021 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

It suggests that IRCC demonstrated good policy by using its website during lockdowns to urge those with new or renewal applications to stay in Canada, extending their reapplication deadlines up to 18 months. But these “blanket” extensions were not recognized in Statistics Canada measurements, the report indicates.

While no official statistics exist on the number of overstayers, the report estimated a figure by examining the numerical difference between applications for permanent residency, student and work visas, and extension of resident visas, versus approvals.

“Using IRCC’s special tabulations and assuming a conservative 60 to 70 percent share of expired visas among that group, we estimate that the stock of overstayers between 2017 and 2022 was north of 750,000,” the authors said.

“Note that we assume zero overstaying before 2017—a very conservative assumption—and we excluded expired visa holders that have not (yet) applied for a new visa, either temporary or permanent.”