Report Identifies Saint John and Calgary as the Cities Most Vulnerable to US Tariffs
According to new research by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Calgary, Saint John, N.B., and Windsor, Ont. are the Canadian cities that would be most affected by U.S. tariffs.
The organization used Statistics Canada trade data to create a “U.S. Tariff Exposure Index” to assess the potential impact of threatened American tariffs on 41 Canadian cities.
The research analyzed Statistics Canada export data in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s initial threat of imposing 25 percent tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico.
Although Trump delayed these tariffs until at least March 4 in light of border security commitments, he recently signed executive orders to impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, including those from Canada, which may particularly impact cities like Hamilton, Ont., and Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. due to their large steel industries.
The chamber’s study highlighted that cities exporting the most goods to the U.S. as a percentage of their local economies will experience the greatest impact.
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According to the researchers, Saint John is the most at risk due to its large crude oil refinery, which exports over 80 percent of its oil production to the U.S.
The report mentioned that seafood and forestry products are other top exports from New Brunswick to the U.S.
Following Saint John, Calgary is identified as the second most vulnerable city, exporting crude oil, natural gas, and beef to the U.S.
Cities in Southwestern Ontario are also exposed due to their automotive and parts manufacturing industry.
Hamilton, Saguenay, and Trois-Rivières are expected to be economically impacted as they are home to Canada’s steel, aluminum, and forestry production respectively.
The report highlighted that Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean is a significant aluminum producer in Canada, with 85 percent of its production exported to the U.S.
Stephen Tapp, the chief economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, emphasized the local and personal impact of the proposed tariffs and urged informed discussions on Canada’s response.
The report also noted that some Canadian cities like Victoria, Halifax, and Sudbury have lower vulnerability to tariffs due to their diversified export markets beyond the U.S.
Candace Laing, the president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, urged vigilance in the face of the ongoing tariff threat and its potential impact on local economies and businesses.
