Report Shows Excess Mortality in Australia Decreased by Over 50% in 2023

A recent study revealed the significant reduction in excess deaths in Australia in 2023 as the nation navigated through the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Excess death refers to a situation where the number of deaths from all identified causes, including COVID-19, exceeds the expected figures based on historical data.

Of the 8,400 cases, COVID-19 was identified as the primary cause of 4,600 deaths (55 percent) and a contributing factor to an additional 1,500 deaths (18 percent).

The remaining 2,300 cases did not mention COVID-19 on the death certificate, but the report suggested that many of these deaths were likely influenced by secondary effects of the disease.

This encompassed the impact of COVID-19 on individuals with pre-existing conditions like heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and dementia, as well as delays in medical care due to the surge in COVID-19 and influenza cases.

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Furthermore, non-COVID-19 excess deaths were more prevalent in individuals aged 75 and above for both genders and women under 45.

As the death toll decreased, COVID-19 dropped to the ninth leading cause of death in Australia in 2023, down from third place in the previous year.

When compared globally, Australia maintained a relatively low excess death rate.

Out of 40 countries that released excess mortality data from 2020 to 2023, Australia ranked 35th with an average rate of 5 percent, slightly behind France, the Dominican Republic, Japan, Denmark, and New Zealand.

In contrast, Latin American countries showed rates exceeding 20 percent, while the United States reported an average excess mortality rate of 10 percent over the past four years.

It’s important to note that the report’s data predominantly relied on mortality statistics published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

COVID-19 Vaccines and Excess Mortality

The report highlighted that COVID-19 vaccines were highly unlikely to cause excess deaths.

According to the report, the available evidence overwhelmingly suggests that COVID-19 vaccines did not lead to significant additional deaths.

Out of the estimated 27,200 excess deaths between 2020-2023, around 17,000 were attributed to COVID-19, while less than 20 deaths were linked to COVID-19 vaccination.

The report also emphasized that the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 vaccines was significantly lower than the number of lives saved by vaccination, estimated to be at least 50,000 in Australia.

The report stated that while there may be COVID-19 vaccine-related deaths that have not been identified, the actual number is likely minimal compared to the estimated excess deaths prevented by vaccination.

Forecast for Excess Deaths

The Actuaries Institute forecasted a further decrease in excess deaths in the upcoming period.

It anticipated that COVID-19 would continue to contribute to some excess mortality in the future, either as a direct cause of death or as a factor in exacerbating other conditions like heart disease.

“There will also be an indirect impact, with the largest contributor likely to be the ongoing consequences of disruption to usual healthcare practices in the earlier years of the pandemic,” the report indicated.

Concerns Regarding Data Accuracy

During a recent Senate inquiry hearing, United Australia Party Senator Ralph Babet raised questions about the accuracy of ABS’s data.

He pointed out that the bureau’s tally of COVID-19 deaths included individuals who died both directly from the virus and with the virus present.

Specifically, he highlighted that out of the 17,276 reported COVID-19-associated deaths in Australia over the past four years, only 702 (4.06 percent) had COVID-19 listed as the sole cause on the death certificate.

“Thus, 95.94 percent of all COVID deaths reported included pre-existing chronic conditions or listed COVID-19 as part of the causal chain of events,” Mr. Babet noted.

While ABS’s director Lauren Moran acknowledged the inclusion of both direct and indirect COVID-19 deaths in their data, she acknowledged the complexity of determining the direct cause of death.

She elaborated that Australians often had multiple ailments contributing to their death, making it challenging to pinpoint a single cause.

“The coding of COVID-19 is actually the same as how we would code influenza. So what we’re looking for is, did COVID cause a pathway leading to death? Did it cause viral pneumonia? Did it cause acute respiratory distress syndrome?” Ms. Moran explained.