Report Warns of ‘Serious Problems’ for Universities as Number of 18-Year-Olds Expected to Decline
The report suggests implementing ‘student number controls’ to prevent top universities from reducing their entry requirements in response to declining enrollment numbers.
A recent study by the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) warned that the combination of a shrinking young population and waning interest in university in England could pose significant challenges for higher education (HE) institutions if enrollments continue to drop.
The study, published on Thursday, highlighted that while the number of 18-year-old home fee-paying students has been steadily increasing since 2019, it is projected to decline by 17 percent by 2040 after peaking in 2030.
Despite the historical data suggesting that a decline in the 18-year-old population led to an increase in university entrants from 2010 to 2020, HEPI noted that this trend has stagnated in the last two admission cycles, indicating a decrease in interest in higher education.
The report’s author, Bahram Bekhradnia, expressed concern that if enrollment continues to drop and universities solely rely on demographics, top institutions may lower their entry standards to attract more students, leading to decreased demand for less prestigious universities.
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Bekradnia proposed implementing “student number controls” to safeguard universities from potential negative impacts caused by the actions of others trying to attract students.
Increasing Participation
The report highlighted a substantial increase in enrollment in 2021 and 2022, possibly due to the uncertain environment created by the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggested that the recent downturn in the 2023 and 2024 cycles could be a temporary setback rather than a long-term trend.
If the decline persists, universities may need to focus on underserved populations to maintain enrollment levels. Encouraging participation among men and disadvantaged groups could help offset the decline, but these rates have also stagnated.
While promoting enrollment among mature students could mitigate some of the decrease, the report emphasized that young entrants remain the dominant group in university admissions, with nearly 80 percent being 20 years old or younger.
‘Hostile’ Environment
The report ruled out price as a primary factor for declining enrollment, citing the relatively stable tuition fees for home students since 2017. Instead, it suggested that residual effects of the pandemic and a perceived “hostile environment” created by the previous government may be contributing to the decline.
The comments may reference former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s pledge to crack down on substandard degree courses last year, aiming to protect students from pursuing qualifications that do not yield significant benefits in their future careers.
The report warned that unless there is a renewed interest in university education among young people, many institutions could face a bleak future.
Financial Pressures
Universities are already under financial strain, and experts predict that closures and mergers may become more common in the future. The Department for Education highlighted the need for universities to secure their financial stability, acknowledging the challenges outlined in HEPI’s report.
Universities UK (UUK) noted that while demand for higher education remains strong, the recent downturn in home student numbers reflects a normalization post-COVID uplift. The organization emphasized the importance of responding to changing student demographics and promoting lifelong learning opportunities as a solution.
A spokesperson for the Russell Group defended the organization against claims of lowering entrance requirements, highlighting their selective admissions process to maintain high academic standards and positive outcomes for graduates.
PA Media contributed to this report.
