Research suggests that 70% of individuals labeled as ‘transgender’ may have been miscategorized
An analysis of the 2021 census data indicated that only 30.5 percent of the responses identifying as transgender should be considered valid.
Research published on April 19 suggested that nearly 70 percent of individuals categorized as “transgender” in the 2021 census for England and Wales may have been misclassified.
Author Michael Biggs, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Oxford, criticized the flawed nature of the census question and suggested that confusion among non-transgender individuals could have led to inflated numbers of those identifying as transgender.
In 2021, the ONS introduced a question on gender identity for the first time in the census questionnaire for England and Wales, in addition to the traditional question on sex.
Individuals aged 16 and above were asked to confirm whether their gender identity matched their sex at birth. Those who answered “no” were prompted to specify their gender identities in the provided boxes.
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Out of the total responses, 262,000 individuals were categorized as transgender for answering “no” to the question, but concerns arose about inaccuracies in the data.
The ONS reported that 45 percent, or 118,000 individuals, did not specify their gender identities, leading Mr. Biggs to question the validity of their responses.
Mr. Biggs also highlighted discrepancies in the data, where individuals identified as trans women or trans men but reported their sex as female or male, respectively, contradicting the definitions of transgender identities.
Additionally, the ONS analysis revealed that certain demographics, such as Muslims and black individuals, as well as those with limited education or proficiency in English, were more likely to answer “no” to the gender question.
The agency acknowledged potential misinterpretations of the question among respondents but could not definitively determine whether the estimates skewed towards overestimation or underestimation.
The ONS speculated that the higher prevalence of “no” responses among foreign language speakers could be due to the UK being perceived as more accepting and accommodating to transgender individuals compared to other countries.
Concern for Non-Trans Population ‘Absent’
Mr. Biggs criticized the ONS for not considering how the general population, particularly those outside the professional-managerial class, might interpret the gender identification question.
He noted the lack of concern for understanding non-transgender perspectives in the question development process, highlighting the potential for false positives that could significantly influence the final figures.
Mr. Biggs expressed unease with the ONS’s approach to data scrutiny and emphasized the importance of considering perspectives beyond the transgender community in designing census questions.
In response to feedback, the ONS acknowledged the potential for misinterpretations in the data but defended its rigorous question development process, emphasizing the involvement of non-trans-identifying individuals and foreign language speakers in testing the questionnaire.
The agency underscored the complexity of obtaining accurate census estimates on this topic due to the voluntary nature of the question and the diverse demographics of respondents.
