Solomon Islands’ Position on Beijing Questionable Following Pro-CCP Sogavare’s Resignation
It is likely that Manasseh Sogavare’s successor will maintain a pro-Beijing stance.
Following an inconclusive election, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has withdrawn from the race to lead the country, citing Western foreign influence as the reason for his defeat.
During a post-election press conference on April 29, Mr. Sogavare mentioned that his government had faced pressure from the United States and its Western allies and had been accused of various offenses. Despite his party, Ownership Unity and Responsibility (OUR), fielding 43 candidates in the election, they only won 15 seats in the 50-seat parliament.
Since terminating the Solomon Islands’ ties with Taiwan in September 2019, Mr. Sogavare has been closely aligned with Beijing. The continuation of this alignment under the new government remains uncertain.
In 2022, Mr. Sogavare negotiated a comprehensive security agreement with Beijing, which attracted attention during Australia’s federal election campaign and raised concerns in Washington.
This development coincided with the United States’ renewed focus on the Indo-Pacific region, as demonstrated by initiatives like AUKUS.
The U.S. also reopened an embassy in the Solomon Islands last year after a 30-year absence, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressing the significance of the Indo-Pacific region in shaping the world’s future.
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Although the specific terms of the final agreement remain undisclosed, the leaked initial version allowed Beijing to conduct certain activities in the Solomon Islands, such as ship visits, logistical replenishment, and having stopovers, under the guise of protecting Chinese personnel and major projects in the country.
PM Denies Plans Amid Controversy
Despite speculation that the security agreement with China could lead to a future Chinese naval base close to Australia’s east coast, Mr. Sogavare consistently denied such claims.
In a parliamentary speech, he sharply criticized foreign scrutiny of the agreement, stating, “We find it very insulting to be labeled as incapable of managing our sovereign affairs.”
He also condemned Australia for past events in 2006 when Australian authorities raided his office in search of evidence related to Attorney-General Julian Moti.
Mr. Moti, an Australian citizen, was wanted in Australia for child sexual assault and was eventually extradited.
During a visit to Beijing in July of the previous year, he joined forces with CCP leader Xi Jinping to announce a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” which included agreements on police training and exchanges. He reiterated his opposition to any efforts to hamper China’s development.
The Prime Minister accused Canberra of interfering in the Solomon Islands’ internal affairs and demanded the removal of Australian police. Nevertheless, in 2021, he requested their assistance to restore order in Honiara during civil unrest, which included the destruction of his family’s residence.
After six months, he signed the security pact with Beijing.
Despite Beijing’s substantial investments in the country during his tenure, Mr. Sogavare barely retained his seat in the recent election in East Choiseul. Critics pointed out issues such as inadequate healthcare services with shortages of medication, while CCP funds were being used to construct sports facilities.
Opposition parties, who opposed the presence of Chinese police in the archipelago in 2022, have formed a coalition and are looking to gain the support of independents to secure the 26 seats necessary to form a government.
If the OUR party retains power, many analysts believe that Mr. Sogavare’s departure will not lead to significant changes in Honiara’s foreign policy.
His anticipated successor, Jeremiah Manele, was the foreign minister when the security agreement with China was negotiated.
Mr. Manele has pledged to continue his predecessor’s approach of being “friends to all and enemies to none,” which suggests a stance of neutrality in the territorial disputes between Beijing and Washington.
In reality, this approach has strengthened ties with China.
Electors Appear to Have Voted on Local Issues
However, Solomon Islands politics are complex, and there seems to be no direct link between the election results and anti-Beijing sentiment among voters.
While the Solomon Islands Development Party (SIDP) and the United Party, led by Matthew Wale and Peter Kenilorea Jr., won new seats, they also saw 40 percent of their incumbent MPs lose their seats.
In Malaita province, led by anti-Beijing governor Daniel Suidani and the alleged starting point of the anti-Sogavare riots in 2021, half of the OUR party’s incumbents were re-elected, a higher success rate than the national average.
During the campaign, Mr. Kenilorea expressed plans to reverse Mr. Sogavare’s Beijing alignment in favor of re-establishing ties with Taiwan, while Mr. Wale consistently criticized the outgoing PM for his CCP alignment.
Despite political leaders emphasizing ties with Beijing during the campaign, voters appear to have based their election decisions on more immediate concerns.
The outcomes of the independent candidates will play a vital role in determining the final government composition, which could impact Beijing.
Despite recent developments, former Prime Minister Sogavare’s financial status seems secure, as documented by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP).
