The Rise of Autonomous Attack Drones Could Revolutionize Modern Warfare, Raising Important Ethical Questions

Commentary

In the realm of modern warfare, first-person view (FPV) drones are playing an increasingly crucial role. In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, these drones have emerged as indispensable weapons for both parties, with the infusion of artificial intelligence (AI) further enhancing their capabilities.

A multitude of online videos have surfaced showcasing the devastation inflicted upon enemy targets and personnel on the battlefield in Ukraine. These videos vividly capture the harrowing moments of life’s end, as well as the desperate struggles amid gunfire, explosions, and fire, serving as a visual testament to each side’s triumph in combat. FPV drones have the ability to document and relay these brutal scenes in real-time.

The deployment of large drone swarms has had a significant psychological impact on enemy forces, in addition to causing physical destruction. Footage from FPV drones shared on social platforms depicts frontline units being decimated by drones, instilling fear and psychological trauma in the soldiers. This sends a clear message to the adversary that assassin drones are constantly surveilling their movements. In situations where both sides face ammunition shortages, drones have been utilized to compensate for the lack of ground firepower, revolutionizing the dynamics of contemporary warfare.

The integration of AI into drones holds the potential to bring about even greater transformations on the battlefield. The concept of AI-powered autonomous attack drones could herald a new era of warfare, as these drones may operate with minimal or no human intervention. However, the prospect of autonomous lethal weapons devoid of human decision-makers raises significant ethical concerns.

Drone Warfare

Both Kyiv and Moscow acknowledge the immense value of drones in military operations, but currently, Russia maintains a superiority in terms of quantity and capability. Possessing a significant inventory of Orlan-10, ZALA, Shahed, and other drones, Russia has demonstrated the destructive potential of these drones in combat, inflicting damage not only on critical Ukrainian infrastructure but also causing civilian casualties.

On the Ukrainian front, the recognition of drones as a vital component in warfare has surged, particularly in light of ground artillery ammunition shortages. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set an ambitious target of producing one million drones by 2024. Within the first two months of the year, Ukraine has already manufactured 200,000 drones, many of which are small FPV attack drones.

Dmytro Prodanyuk, co-founder of the Ukrainian drone manufacturer Wild Hornets, has expressed optimism regarding the production of drones, estimating that the output could surpass one million drones this year.

Ukrainian Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov also believes that with adequate funding, the production of over two million drones is feasible.

Initially met with skepticism within the Ukrainian military, the capabilities of FPV drones gained recognition as frontline units began employing these small drones to great effect on the battlefield.

The primary challenge faced by small drones in combat is electronic interference, prompting continuous design improvements to counter Russian electronic warfare measures. Despite the deployment of anti-drone jammers by the Russian military, Ukrainian drones managed to reach their intended targets.

Future AI Involvement

The evolution of attack drones is likely to involve AI integration. The first wave of Ukrainian FPV drones equipped with automatic target recognition capabilities has already been deployed. Autonomous guidance systems exhibit faster response times and higher accuracy rates compared to human pilots.

While AI has not completely supplanted human functions yet, the emergence of fully autonomous drones may change the landscape of warfare. The increased autonomy of attack drones allows for simultaneous operations without constraints of radio links and bandwidth, enabling coordinated attacks on multiple targets within a designated area.

According to Prodanyuk, the deployment of AI-powered autonomous attack drones could occur within the next six months, paving the way for widespread use of drones capable of independently selecting and engaging targets by the following year.

The potential ramifications of large-scale autonomous drone warfare remain uncertain, but based on current trends, drones might eventually replace conventional ground firepower as the predominant force on the battlefield.

In Prodanyuk’s statements, there’s no indication of apprehension about AI-controlled killing machines or a moral obligation to humanity in the context of autonomous lethal weapons. Amidst these challenging times, Ukraine’s ability to consider and address its moral responsibilities as a nation remains uncertain.

In contrast, Russia has shown a ruthless pursuit of war objectives, even issuing nuclear threats to dissuade Western support for Ukraine. When it comes to AI’s role in warfare, unless technological constraints intervene, Russia is unlikely to forfeit the development of more efficient AI-based weapons systems in favor of moral considerations.

Regrettably, the likelihood of autonomous killing machines making their debut on the Ukrainian battlefield is high, necessitating preemptive measures from the international community. However, the prospects of such efforts yielding tangible outcomes seem bleak, as a global consensus on this issue remains elusive. While the United States has proposed restrictions on autonomous lethal weapons development, countries like China and Russia have yet to provide substantive responses.

Michael Zhuang contributed to this report.