Think Tank Deems Feds’ Plan to Decarbonize Canada’s Electricity Grid by 2035 Unachievable
The Fraser Institute has expressed skepticism about the federal government’s plan to achieve carbon-free electricity generation in Canada by 2035, deeming it “impractical and highly unlikely” due to various physical, infrastructure, financial, and regulatory challenges.
A recent study by the think tank highlights the significant hurdles faced by Ottawa in its goal of transitioning the electricity grid to 100 percent carbon-free sources within the next decade, as part of the larger ambition to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The transition to carbon-free electricity entails phasing out fossil fuel sources while also expanding capacity to meet the increasing demands from electric vehicles, population growth, and industrial electrification, as indicated in the study’s report.
“Canada’s federal government has set an ambitious, and, frankly, unrealistic target of achieving complete carbon-free electricity in ten years,” said Jock Finlayson, a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and co-author of the study, in a news release on Oct. 29.
Based on data from Statistics Canada, the authors found that in 2023, carbon-free sources accounted for nearly 81 percent of Canada’s electricity generation, with hydro, nuclear, wind, biomass, and solar contributing to that percentage.
To replace the electricity currently generated by fossil fuels, Canada would need approximately 117,700 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity from carbon-free sources each year, assuming no overall growth in electricity supply, according to the report co-authored by Finlayson and Elmira Aliakbari, director of the Centre for Natural Resources Studies at the Fraser Institute.
Lands Required
Using hydro power as the sole alternative to fossil fuel-based generation would necessitate the construction of around 23 large hydroelectric dams or 24 projects equivalent to facilities like B.C’s Site C or Newfoundland and Labrador’s Muskrat Falls, the report noted.
Further calculations revealed that utilizing wind energy alone to replace fossil fuel-generated electricity would necessitate the construction of approximately 11,000 large wind turbines across Canada by 2035, with each turbine having a capacity of 3.5 megawatts and a 35 percent capacity factor.
If Canada were to rely solely on nuclear power to replace fossil fuel-based electricity, the report estimated that around 2.3 large-scale nuclear plants, similar to Ontario’s Bruce Power generating station, would need to be built within the next decade.
‘Cost Overruns’
The authors highlighted the complexities and challenges associated with planning and constructing major electricity generation facilities in Canada, citing examples like the Site C project in B.C., which experienced significant cost overruns during its construction phase.
Co-author Aliakbari emphasized that the scale of infrastructure required to achieve carbon-free electricity in Canada within a decade is unrealistic given the current state of affairs and the growing demands for electricity.
The Fraser Institute’s findings raise questions about the feasibility and practicality of the government’s ambitious goals for the country’s electricity sector, especially considering the existing challenges and constraints outlined in the report.
The Epoch Times sought comments from Environment and Climate Change Canada on the matter but did not receive a response at the time of publication.
