UK Political Parties Remain Quiet on Economic Impact of Lockdowns
Economists caution that the extensive spending during COVID-19 lockdowns could influence politics for up to a decade.
Despite significant warnings about their lasting impact, the economic consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns have been notably absent from political discussions throughout the general election campaign.
Between early 2020 and 2022, the Conservative-led government implemented significant spending measures to address the impacts of COVID-19.
Most major political parties have yet to address concerns related to the lockdowns, even as potential long-term effects loom ahead of the July 4 general election.
Critics argue that a prevailing consensus, coupled with “cognitive dissonance” and an unwillingness to confront uncomfortable truths, has stifled meaningful debate.
Nonetheless, one expert warned that the economic aftermath of the lockdowns could dominate political discussions for years to come.
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Moreover, the Bank of England implemented substantial monetary measures during the lockdowns, including a £450 billion expansion of its quantitative easing program.
Throughout the pandemic, the Labour Party endorsed significant quantitative easing and fiscal measures, often advocating for even more extensive government intervention. The Greens mentioned that the lockdowns provided a glimpse of a new world with reduced pollution and increased social cohesion. The Liberal Democrats also called for additional national lockdowns.
Long-Lasting Impact on Public Services
David Paton, a chair in industrial economics at Nottingham University Business School and co-editor of the International Journal of the Economics of Business, emphasized that the lockdowns should be a significant election issue.
“The government may argue that some COVID measures expenditure was necessary and produced significant benefits,” he noted.
However, he pointed out that focusing solely on lockdowns reveals the enormous sums spent by the government and their enduring impact on public services funding.
He highlighted that while other factors play a role, such as support for high energy prices post-war in Ukraine and the increasing spending on the “net zero agenda,” allocating substantial sums to businesses to close and individuals not to work has resulted in long-term consequences for inflation and public services.
“Considering the strong evidence that such measures provided little to no benefit in preventing COVID mortality (and possibly even increased excess mortality), this should be a significant election issue,” he emphasized.
“The major parties’ reluctance to discuss this issue likely stems from the fact that they all endorsed the policy—the main opposition parties advocated for even stricter lockdowns. However, the fact that the major parties are avoiding the issue underscores the importance of the media challenging this consensus,” he added.
“It is disappointing that the mainstream media is not doing so,” he concluded.
‘Massive Groupthink’
In his book, “The Covid Consensus: The Global Assault on Democracy and the Poor—A Critique From the Left,” co-authored with Toby Green, Thomas Fazi argued that authoritarian measures such as lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and enforced mask-wearing have “led to a biopolitical disenfranchisement of human rights and the encroachment of state and corporate directives onto private lives.”
Mr. Fazi extensively discussed how a significant transfer of wealth upward, which he termed “the largest in modern history in the shortest space of time,” resulted in profound economic hardship and the collapse of small businesses, despite a few mega-corporations, particularly in the Big Tech and Big Pharma sectors, profiting immensely.
He expressed skepticism that this issue would be addressed politically in the near future.
“Who would be expected to bring up the issue when all major parties and mainstream media outlets universally supported lockdowns? They would essentially be incriminating themselves,” he noted via email to The Epoch Times.
Mr. Johnson, the former chairman of the Pizza Express chain, the Royal Society of Arts, and Channel 4, highlighted the near-unanimous support from both the Tories and Labour for lockdown measures.
“It was a shameful, disgraceful episode,” he told The Epoch Times.
“I believe there is a component of cognitive dissonance, massive groupthink, where no one is willing to acknowledge what a catastrophic policy error it was,” he claimed. “Society has been partly broken as a result in various ways,” he added.
Lockdowns Will ‘Dominate Politics for at Least 10 Years’
Senior British economist Paul Ormerod stated that the events during lockdowns are a crucial factor in the upcoming general election.
He highlighted that the exorbitant costs of lockdowns have limited the government’s capacity to act, and voters are now facing the consequences.
He emphasized that Labour was particularly supportive of lockdown measures.
“There was no political party that opposed lockdown and advocated for an approach similar to Sweden,” he remarked.
He added that criticism of lockdowns was primarily left to a minority of politicians, academics, and commentators, and that the policy was increasingly recognized as a “disastrous” one.
“The peculiar aspect of lockdown is that every government policy undergoes a cost-benefit analysis,” he noted. “If you want to construct a road, a hospital, or implement a certain policy, there is a need to evaluate the benefits and costs.” However, he pointed out that remarkably, this was not done “officially.”
“Unofficially, external economists concluded that, based on any reasonable assumptions, the costs outweighed the benefits by a large margin,” he said.
In terms of the economic impact scale, he highlighted that during lockdowns, output dropped by over 20%, far exceeding the 4-5% drops experienced in the early 1980s and during the 2007–2009 financial crisis.
However, the Bank of England seemed to attribute the resulting inflation to international factors such as supply chain disruptions and the energy crisis.
Mr. Ormerod referred to lockdowns as “a massive elephant in the room,” noting that the costs are becoming increasingly apparent on a daily basis.
He mentioned that during the 1970s, the Edward Heath Conservative government engaged in policies that effectively expanded the money supply and faced challenges due to domestic economic strategies and external shocks, such as the 1973 oil crisis, which culminated in higher energy costs and severe inflation.
He stated that the fight against inflation that followed “dominated economic policy not only in the UK, but across the West for at least 20 years.”
“The costs of lockdown and its consequences will play a similar role and are expected to dominate politics for at least the next 10 years
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