Russian forces have reported that they have recaptured at least a dozen settlements in the Kursk border region since March 8.
After holding onto a swathe of Russian territory for more than seven months, Ukraine’s occupation of the Kursk region is at a growing risk of collapse.
Ukrainian forces first entered the Russian border region in a surprise assault on Aug. 6, and have been battling to maintain control over that area. At their peak, Ukrainian troops had seized control of a stretch of land spanning approximately 500 square miles. Last month, the Russian military reported that they had regained about 300 square miles of territory lost the previous summer.
Over the past several months, Kyiv’s forces have gradually lost more land in the Kursk region in a prolonged battle. This week, Ukraine’s control inside Russia’s borders has significantly decreased.
Reports emerged on March 8 of a Russian assault force bypassing Ukrainian lines near the Kursk town of Sudzha by crawling through a defunct gas pipeline for miles before emerging north of the town.
Russia’s Tass news agency reported that the pipeline assault force included elements of the Akhmat special operations unit and the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment. Akhmat commander Lt. Gen. Apty Alaudinov stated that the infiltration attack caused panic among Ukrainian forces in the area.
While Alaudinov suggested that Ukrainian forces were in disarray, Ukraine’s military General Staff claimed they detected the infiltration quickly and began eliminating the Russian element with rockets, artillery, and attack drones.
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“At present, Russian special forces are being detected, blocked, and destroyed. The enemy’s losses in Sudzha are very high,” the Ukrainian military leadership said in a March 8 Facebook post.
Moscow Touts Battlefield Successes
While Ukrainians claim to have inflicted heavy casualties on their enemies, the Russian side views the operation as a success. As of March 11, Tass reported that Russian forces had captured 12 settlements surrounding Sudzha, covering about 40 square miles.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that its forces retook another five settlements in the Kursk region on March 12.
“Except for two or three villages around Sudzha, all other communities are under the control of Russian troops,” Alaudinov told Tass.
The Kremlin shared a video on March 12, showing Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with military leaders in the Kursk region to discuss recent events.
“Our immediate task is to inflict a complete defeat on the enemy that has dug in in the Kursk Region and still keeps fighting here as promptly as possible, and to completely liberate the entire region,” Putin said.
The Ukrainian military’s General Staff issued a new statement on Wednesday, stating that the fighting near Sudzha continues.
A Ukrainian soldier, as seen in a file photo, patrols in the town of Sudzha, in Russia’s Kursk region on Aug. 16, 2024. Yan Dobronosov/Reuters
Kyiv’s military leadership also stated that the Russian side has paid a heavy cost to retake the Kursk territory. In total, Ukraine claims to have inflicted more than 54,000 casualties on Russia’s forces in and around Kursk since August.
Exact casualty figures cannot be independently verified at this time.
Implications for Peace Negotiation
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had proposed using the territory that Ukrainian forces have held inside Russia’s borders as a bargaining chip for some of the territory that Russia has seized from Ukraine since 2014. It remains to be seen if Ukrainian forces can hold onto any Russian soil long enough to trade it in a potential land swap.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian representatives voiced support for a proposed 30-day cease-fire deal with Russia, which could potentially lead to a full peace settlement. Moscow has yet to accept the proposed halt in the fighting. In addition to announcing the cease-fire proposal, the Trump administration said it would also resume U.S. intelligence sharing and other forms of military assistance to Ukraine.
Addressing the cease-fire proposal and the developments in the Kursk region on Wednesday, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine’s military leadership is working to preserve the lives of its forces.
In an interview on Wednesday, Russian analyst Ruslan Leviev suggested that the Ukrainian incursion in the Kursk region is likely to come to an end soon.
“Maybe this story will end today. Maybe they will try to hold the border villages for another couple of days. But overall, the story of the Kursk bridgehead is coming to an end, and Ukrainian troops are leaving,” Leviev said.
