The Liberals’ hold on big-city voters faces a challenge in two weeks with a byelection in a Toronto riding they have controlled since 1993.
Liberal candidate Leslie Church, a former chief of staff for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, will compete against Tory candidate Don Stewart, who works in the financial sector.
The byelection was triggered after Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett
announced her resignation last December. Bennett had represented Toronto—St. Paul’s since 1997.
Just two days before a cabinet reshuffle last summer which led to her losing a ministerial post, Bennett
stated that she would not seek re-election. She was succeeded as minister of mental health and addictions by Ya’ara Saks, another Toronto MP.
While Conservatives have been polling ahead of Liberals nationally in recent months, cities like Toronto and Montreal have remained Liberal strongholds.
According to Abacus Data’s modeling, Liberals are leading in the Toronto—St. Paul’s riding, but with a narrower margin than in previous elections.
Abacus CEO David Coletto
stated on the X platform that according to their polling data, Liberals are projected to receive 38 percent of the vote, compared to 34 percent for Conservatives and 20 percent for the NDP.
In the 2021 election, Bennett won the riding with 49.2 percent of the vote, nearly double that of the closest Conservative candidate who received 25.3 percent.
In previous elections, Bennett secured even higher shares of the vote, with 54.3 percent in 2019 and 55.3 percent in 2015. The Conservatives’ best result in those elections was 27 percent in 2015.
A strong performance by Conservatives in this traditionally Liberal stronghold could send a message to other competitive ridings in the Greater Toronto Area leading up to the scheduled October 2025 general election.
Church, a lawyer and former head of global communications for Google Canada, is running on the Liberal platform, emphasizing her contributions to the $10-a-day national childcare program and affordable housing initiatives.
SheShe has received support from senior cabinet ministers, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who participated in a campaign event on May 30.
Ministers from the Toronto area, including her former boss Chrystia Freeland, Defence Minister Bill Blair,
and Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations Gary Anandasangaree, have also campaigned for her.
Conservative candidate Don Stewart, who works for the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), also
received support from out-of-town Tory House Leader Andrew Scheer, who assisted him in door-to-door campaigning in early June.
Stewart highlighted issues like the carbon tax, inflation, rising crime, and high mortgages in a social media post, resonating with residents of Toronto—St. Paul’s who are eager to bring common sense back after nine years of Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
Stewart, a staunch supporter of the Canadian Armed Forces and the Honorary Lieutenant-Colonel of reserve unit 2 Intelligence Company in Toronto, is competing against Church and NDP
candidate Amrit Parhar, a community organizer and
program director at the non-profit Institute for Change Leaders.
