US Lawmakers and Policy Analysts Monitor Taiwan’s Elections for Implications on China

With Taiwan heading into the final hours of its presidential election cycle, lawmakers and foreign policy analysts in the United States are preparing for how the election outcome will impact international relations with China.

While Taiwan governs itself like an independent nation, the People’s Republic of China considers the island a part of its territory. Officials within the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have repeatedly alluded to asserting political control over Taiwan through a strategy of so-called “reunification” between the island and the Chinese mainland, and have not ruled out military actions as a means of achieving this goal. It is in this context that foreign policy analysts like John Dotson, deputy director for the Global Taiwan Institute, are keeping an eye on Taiwan’s next moves and China’s reactions.

“The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is certainly undertaking a very broad effort to try to influence the elections in Taiwan,” Mr. Dotson told NTD News.

Mr. Dotson, who is a former U.S. Navy officer, said Chinese efforts to influence the election’s outcome have included overt acts of military intimidation, such as operating military aircraft and surveillance balloons near the island. However, he said the Chinese side has also pursued a less overt approach, with propaganda and disinformation, as well as efforts to gain favor with political figures and other local officials within Taiwan.

“Something else we’ve seen over the last month or two, was a program funded by the Chinese government to invite lower-level local officials from Taiwan on trips into the PRC, where they will be … wined and dined and cultivated and so forth,” he said. “So that there’s a very broad-based effort to try to influence the elections in Taiwan, that’s taken multiple forms.”

The CCP’s Preferred Outcome

The Taiwanese presidential election pits Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate—and current Taiwanese Vice President—Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, against Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih, who is currently mayor of New Taipei. Voters are set to go to the polls and decide the outcome on Saturday.

As Mr. Dotson described it, there is a popular perception that the KMT is more agreeable to China, while the DPP is viewed as favoring greater independence and separation from China and the CCP.

The KMT’s policy platform states that the party aims to improve cross-strait relations but will work to deter military aggression from China.

Outgoing Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, who is a DPP member, has pursued defense spending increases throughout her time in office since 2016.

“There are elements in the past of the DPP, where it … has been sometimes regarded as though [it was] the more pro-independence party or the more … native Taiwan identity party,” Mr. Dotson said. “And it’s on that grounds that the PRC has been extremely hostile to the DPP, under the current DPP administration.”

Mr. Dotson said Ms. Tsai has actually been more moderate than other elements within the DPP, and has not made any efforts to assert de jure independence from China. Mr. Dotson said Mr. Lai has similarly vowed not to assert de jure Taiwanese independence, “but the government of China, of Beijing, is still very hostile to the DPP.”

In a Thursday press statement, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that if Mr. Lai is elected, he and the DPP would “continue to follow the evil path of provocation for ‘independence’ and the old path of confrontation and confrontation, taking Taiwan farther and farther away from peace and prosperity, and closer and closer to war and recession.”

Mr. Dotson stopped short of saying the KMT would necessarily act out of a sense of indebtedness or allegiance to China if Mr. Hou wins.

“If the KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih were to win the presidency, there probably would be, at least for a limited period of time, a bit of a thawing in the relations there. I don’t know that it would actually last, because I think even though the PRC has made very clear its preferences for a KMT victory in these elections, I think they would probably find themselves disappointed under a KMT administration,” Mr. Dotson said.

Taiwanese People Likely to Reject CCP Influence, Analysts Say

Mr. Dotston said he believes Taiwan “has made a very impressive response” to a concerted campaign of outside influence and interference, pushing back on the influence efforts through various civil society organizations and grassroots efforts.

Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said he doubts Taiwan’s voters will be swayed by outside influences.

“It is a vibrant democracy with free press, aggressive elections, as it should be,” Mr. Díaz-Balart told NTD News. “So I don’t think that the Taiwanese are going to be intimidated. I think they’re going to hopefully turn out, as I think they will, and elect a new president. That’s a beautiful thing. It’s an exciting thing. And it’s important that Communist China know that they will, they are not going to influence nor will they intimidate the Taiwanese people to make the choice that they want to make.”

No matter what choice Taiwan’s voters make, Mr. Díaz-Balart said Taiwan “will have the strong support of the United States Congress.”

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, still urged vigilance.

“I think we better worry about China with their technological advancements stealing that election, and corrupting that system, further dislodging the good people of Taiwan from the truth,” Mr. Burchett told NTD News.