WA’s Decarbonisation Expected to Increase Electricity Demand by Five Times
Achieving net zero emissions across the economy requires the electricity sector to decarbonise faster than other sectors.
According to new modeling, the Western Australian (WA) government’s plan to decarbonise the electricity sector will result in an increase of more than fivefold in electricity demand. On Dec. 13, the Cook government released its sectoral emissions reduction strategy (SERS), outlining its plan to drive decarbonisation in WA. This includes pouring billions of dollars into transforming the state’s transmission infrastructure, establishing a “green export industry,” and investing over $200 million (US$133 million) in accelerating the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs).
The strategy focuses on sectors such as electricity, industry, transport, agriculture, land, buildings, and waste, outlining pathways for these sectors to reach net zero emissions by 2050. According to the government’s modeling, the electricity demand could increase more than fivefold for current and new applications in the SWIS (South West Interconnected System) and Pilbara by 2050, including electrification of transport, mining, natural gas liquefaction, chemical production, and the development of future industries.
The document also highlighted the state’s plan to replace thermal generation with zero-emissions electricity, which will require more renewable generation and storage due to the variable nature of wind and solar resources. To support this, the government secured up to $3 billion (US$2 billion) from the federal government’s Rewiring the Nation program and is spending more than $2 billion (US$1.34 billion) on extensive battery systems in Kwinana and Collie.
WA Climate Action Minister Reece Whitby emphasized that the state is well-positioned to become a globally significant exporter of green hydrogen and green ammonia, and contribute to the decarbonisation of global steelmaking. The government will invest heavily in the state’s primary energy grid (SWIS) and in the Pilbara region to develop the transmission infrastructure required for decarbonisation and to create renewable generation hubs.
Under the WA government’s net zero target, the state aims to cut emissions from its operations to 80 percent below 2020 levels and retire all state-owned coal-fired electricity generation by 2030. By 2050, up to 96 percent of energy consumed would come from renewable generation, compared with 34 percent currently in the SWIS and 2 percent in the Pilbara. The government also plans to fast-track the approval process of electricity transmission infrastructure, and has set up a dedicated Green Energy Approvals team to streamline approvals for proponents and investors in renewable energy, critical minerals, and hydrogen projects. In addition, the government is investing in a carbon capture utilization and storage action plan and an ambitious plan to cut transport emissions by about 70 percent by 2050.
However, the state faces concerns of an energy shortage as a result of the transition to a renewable economy. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) reported that WA could face a shortage of 945 megawatts of electricity in 2025-26 and around 4,000 megawatts by 2032-33, citing a reduction in coal-fired generation and strong growth in electricity demand driven by the transition to renewable energy. Additionally, the AEMO’s annual outlook on the WA gas market revealed the state’s shortage of gas supply might force it to depend on natural gas storage from the export market.
