U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has stirred concern in Canada with his threat of imposing hefty tariffs if the country fails to address illegal migration and drug trafficking heading south. How worrisome is the situation at the Canadian border compared to the U.S.-Mexico border?
Trump has been vocal about immigration issues at the U.S. southern border, labeling it as an “invasion.” He also accused Mexico, along with China, of flooding the United States with potent synthetic opioid fentanyl, wreaking havoc in communities. Despite the disparity between Canada and Mexico in terms of immigration and drug challenges faced by the U.S., Canada was included in Trump’s tariff threat on Nov. 25.
The president-elect announced plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada once he takes office on Jan. 20.
“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” he stated in a social media post.
While the immigration and narcotics challenges posed by Canada to the U.S. differ significantly from those posed by Mexico, Trump’s border czar pick Tom Homan recently labeled Canada a significant national security concern.
Although the number of people illegally crossing into the U.S. from Canada is lower than from Mexico, there has been a notable increase in certain areas.
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Robert Garcia, chief of the U.S. Border Patrol for the Swanton Sector Vermont, reported on Oct. 2 that his agents have apprehended more than 19,000 individuals from 97 different countries since Oct. 1, 2023. This sector covers areas bordering Quebec, including parts of Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire, and has seen a surge in apprehensions that surpasses the total of the last 17 years combined.
While there has been an increase in overall apprehensions along the entire northern border in recent years, the rise has not been as significant.
Then-President Donald Trump (C) reaches out to Then-Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as they prepare to sign a new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that is replacing the NAFTA trade deal, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Nov. 30, 2018. AP Photo/Martin Mejia
In response to the rising flow, the U.S. government tightened asylum-seeker rules, reducing the time to consult a lawyer from 24 hours to 4 hours, and updated the Safe Third Country Agreement with Canada to close a loophole, making it illegal to file a refugee claim at non-official border crossings if a claim had been made in either country.
The U.S. northern land border saw nearly 199,000 encounters in fiscal 2024, an increase of over 9,500 from the previous year. By comparison, there were over 2.1 million encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border in the same fiscal year, stressing the difference in migration volumes between the two borders.
In reaction to Trump’s tariff threat, Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller pointed out that illegal crossings from Canada amount to the “equivalent, on a yearly basis, of a significant weekend at the Mexico border.” Miller emphasized the seriousness of the situation and the need for action.
The number of illegal immigrant encounters from Canada into the U.S. has been on the rise in recent years, but the amount of drugs seized at the northern border dropped significantly in the last fiscal year based on CBP’s data.
CBP reported a decrease in drug seizures at the northern border in fiscal 2024, such as marijuana and cocaine, with fentanyl making up a smaller portion compared to the U.S.-Mexico border. However, the concerns extend beyond immigration issues to include terrorism threats, as echoed by future border czar Homan’s warning on the U.S. northern border’s “extreme national security vulnerability.”
Reflecting the concerns raised, Sundberg and Tronnes emphasized the need for stronger border security measures in response to Trump’s tariff threats, which they see as broader political signals beyond mere border issues.
U.S. Border Patrol agents of the Swanton Sector on the U.S.-Canada border detain illegal migrants. U.S. Border Patrol photo
Tronnes highlighted the need for Canadian authorities to address Trump’s concerns while Sundberg emphasized the urgency of implementing measures to enhance border security and mitigate potential risks related to Trump’s immigration and drug trafficking directives.
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