Oil could jump by $20 if Ukraine crisis worsens, says BofA

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FILE PHOTO: Towers and smokestacks are silhouetted at an oil refinery in Melbourne
FILE PHOTO: Towers and smokestacks are silhouetted at an oil refinery in Melbourne June 21, 2010. REUTERS/Mick Tsikas//File Photo

February 22, 2022

(Reuters) – Global oil benchmark Brent crude could rise by $5-$20 a barrel depending on the severity of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Bank of America (BofA) Global Research said on Tuesday, adding that prices could drop by $2-$4 if tensions de-escalate.

Oil hit its highest since 2014 on Tuesday, with Brent futures reaching $99.50 a barrel after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.[O/R]

The bank sees Brent heading to $120 a barrel by mid-2022, with fundamentals justifying a near-term spike and demand projected to rise by 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) to surpass pre-pandemic levels at nearly 101 million bpd this year.

“A weaker dollar trend and a pro-growth macro backdrop, if it indeed occurs, could support crude near triple digits in the second half of the year,” the bank said in a research note.

A potential nuclear deal with Iran and associated sanctions relief would quickly translate into lower oil prices, the bank’s analysts noted.

Analysts at BofA believe Brent prices will need to average $60 to $80 per barrel to keep the global oil market in balance out to 2027.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru)





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