Economist Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 10 Points, 44-34 Percent

According to a new poll from The Economist and YouGov, more Americans believe that former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election than President Joe Biden.

The survey asked voters, “Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the presidential election” between Biden and Trump.

• 34% said Biden.
• 44% said Trump.
• 22% are not sure.

White voters were more likely to predict a Trump victory, while Black voters were more likely to pick Biden to win over Trump. Hispanic voters were more mixed.

• 29% of white voters said Biden, 49% said Trump, and 22% were unsure.
• 48% of Black voters said Biden, 30% said Trump, and 22% were unsure.
• 37% of Hispanic voters said Biden, 36% said Trump, and 28% were unsure.

The survey also found that most voters, by a slim margin, would vote for Biden over Trump if the election were held today and they were the Democrat and Republican nominees.

• 44% would vote for Biden.
• 42% would vote for Trump.
• 7% would vote for another candidate.
• 3% were unsure.
• 4% would not vote.

YouGov polled 1,500 American citizens from across the country, including 1,323 registered voters, from Nov. 25-27, with a margin of +/- 3.3 percentage points.