Iowa Poll suggests Biden may face biggest Democratic defeat in a century

Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is leading Joe Biden by 18 points in Iowa, indicating a potentially historical Democrat performance. According to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, Trump is ahead with 50% of likely voters, while Biden trails at 32%.

If this trend continues, Biden could see the lowest Democratic vote share in Iowa since 1924, when John W. Davis received 16.42%. In that election, Republican candidate Calvin Coolidge earned 55%, as reported by Newsweek here.

Biden’s current polling in Iowa is below Jimmy Carter’s performance in 1980, when he received 38.6% of the vote against Ronald Reagan.

In previous elections, Trump won Iowa with 51% in 2016 and expanded to 53% in 2020, signaling potential for further growth in 2024. The latest survey also shows Robert F. Kennedy with 9% support, though his ballot access in Iowa is still unconfirmed, as reported by Decision Desk HQ.

In the February survey, Trump led Biden by 48%-33%. Biden’s approval rating in Iowa currently stands at 28%, down one point since February and 10 points below the national average of 38.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

The survey conducted by Selzer & Co. polled 806 Iowa adults and 632 likely voters from June 9-14, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points among adults and 3.9 percentage points among likely voters.