Unlikely for Voters to be Influenced by Trump Verdict, Marist Poll Shows

A recent national poll released by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist suggests that the outcome of former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York is unlikely to significantly impact voters’ opinions of him.

A Manhattan jury is currently deliberating the fate of the former president, who faces 34 counts related to falsifying business records in connection to a payment made by his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.

Trump has maintained his innocence, attributing the case to political motivations by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and a biased judge, Juan Merchan.

The poll, conducted from May 21-23 with 1,261 adults (1,122 registered voters), revealed that a majority of voters (67%) would not be swayed by a guilty verdict, with 17% less likely to vote for Trump and 15% more likely to vote for him.

According to the poll, if Trump is found guilty, Democrats are split with 65% saying it would not affect their vote, while 27% would be less likely and 7% more likely to vote for him. Among Republicans, 69% indicated no change in their voting intentions, while 10% would be less likely and 20% more likely to vote for him. Independents were similarly divided with 74% reporting no change, 11% less likely, and 15% more likely to vote for Trump.

If Trump is acquitted, 76% of registered voters stated that it would not impact their decision, with 9% less likely and 14% more likely to vote for him. The responses were varied among party affiliations, with 68% of Republicans saying it would make no difference, 26% more likely, and 3% less likely to vote for him. Among Democrats, 75% indicated no change, with 17% less likely and 8% more likely to vote for him. Independents, on the other hand, showed 86% no change, 8% more likely, and 6% less likely.