Strike in Tel Aviv implies that Iran sees opportunity amid Biden’s political troubles
President Biden’s shortcomings in the Middle East — exemplified by the non-floating pier assembled for Gaza and his domestic political challenges — may be empowering Iran and its allies in the region.
This could potentially escalate the chaos across the entire Middle East.
On Friday, the Houthis reported launching an Iranian-made drone that struck near the US consulate in Tel Aviv. One Israeli citizen was killed, and 10 others were injured.
This incident occurred shortly after the Iranian-backed rebels attacked two oil tankers in the Red Sea, including the MT Chios Lion, resulting in a 25-mile oil spill.
In a twist of fate, the vessel was carrying 100,000 tons of Russian crude oil bound for China. Indeed, Karma prevailed on that particular day.
No such luck on Friday.
Israel publicly acknowledged the failure of its Iron Dome air defenses to activate even after detecting the drone that struck Tel Aviv earlier.
This suggests a deliberate targeting of the former US Embassy on Ben Yehuda Street. It is highly probable that Tehran orchestrated this attack.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei likely senses vulnerability in the US — especially amidst the White House’s internal political turmoil.
Iran’s leadership sees an opportunity to strike with Biden’s weakening position in the US.
As the focus shifts inward within Washington, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its affiliated groups are seizing the chance to go on the offensive.
In Iraq, IRGC-backed factions are once again targeting US troops and military installations.
Last July 16, one-way drones attacked US and coalition forces at the Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar.
US CENTCOM can anticipate more such attacks, along with Tehran’s efforts to expand its influence in and around the Red Sea.
Iran is working to establish a naval port in Sudan along the Red Sea and has been supplying drones to the military regime led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
While Burhan has resisted Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for now, this stance may shift in the near future.
It is noteworthy that Vladimir Putin is also pursuing a naval base in Sudan to complement the Russian port in Libya.
Putin aims to tighten his grip on the Sahel in Central Africa and pose a threat to US interests in North Africa, the Mediterranean, the Suez Canal, Red Sea, Djibouti, and the Gulf of Aden.
Having a common adversary in the US and nearby ports would provide further incentive for Moscow and Tehran to align.
Meanwhile, Biden appears ineffective in halting these developments. However, Israel remains committed to countering Iran’s multi-pronged aggression with military force.
Despite Biden’s warnings against invading Rafah, the IDF proceeded to seize the buffer zone at the Rafah border crossing into Egypt to disrupt the smuggling of arms and munitions by Iran-backed Hamas from Sinai through underground tunnels.
Similarly bold, the IDF targeted Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif last week, likely eliminating him. This has put Hamas fighters and their top leader Yahya Sinwar on the defensive in Gaza.
While Hamas remains active, it has been sufficiently weakened militarily for the IDF to potentially shift its focus to Hezbollah.
This shift could be on the horizon, and ironically, the Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv may be the tipping point against Hezbollah.
Israel is signaling its determination to end the provocations, holding the Lebanese government accountable for any Hezbollah rocket launched from Lebanon.
Since October 7, IRGC-backed Hezbollah has launched over 6,800 rockets into Israel, resulting in casualties and displacement of civilians.
Israel has prepared for potential ground incursions in Lebanon and has been eliminating Hezbollah commanders. Recently, Habib Maatouk was targeted by the IDF.
Defeating Hezbollah and Hamas is just the initial step for Israel to address Iran’s impending nuclear threat.
The reckoning with Iran will likely come sooner rather than later.
Biden’s reign in Washington may be nearing its end.
Israel is resolute in preventing Biden’s failures in the Middle East from leading to a dead end.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer.
