The Potential Impact of Hurricanes Milton and Irene on Election 2024
Poll-watchers always speculate about the potential “October Surprise” during a presidential election cycle. The recent impact of two powerful hurricanes in the southeast United States qualifies as a surprise and has the potential to influence the close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Natural disasters such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton capture public attention in unique ways compared to other news events.
People who are not usually engaged in politics become interested in acts of nature, empathizing with the victims while considering how they would fare in similar circumstances. There is a strong desire to ensure that those in need are receiving assistance.
The primary factor that could shape voter perceptions is the government’s response to the disaster. In today’s world of constant social media coverage, stories of aid not reaching affected communities will be amplified. The performance of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is crucial, as Vice President Kamala Harris’s administration will be ultimately judged based on FEMA’s effectiveness.
The extensive coverage of the hurricanes might also pose a challenge for Harris by reducing the visibility of her campaign in other news outlets.
This critical phase for Harris requires consistent positive exposure to strengthen her polling numbers. Any time spent on disaster coverage works against her goal.
Donald Trump has the advantage of inserting himself into the hurricane narrative in ways that Harris cannot counter. His actions, such as offering lodging to linemen in his South Florida hotels, can be seen as caring gestures that his allies will spread across social media, reaching millions of voters.
Hurricanes like Helene also impact the election process in crucial states like Georgia and Florida, potentially affecting mail-in ballots and voter displacement.
The election landscape in these states is influenced by factors like executive orders facilitating voting for displaced individuals. Challenges remain, especially in areas severely impacted by the hurricanes.
Both parties will try to control the narrative around disaster relief and cleanup, providing a slight advantage to Trump.
Stay updated on Hurricane Milton with the latest from The Post:
Harris’s campaign centers on bringing change to the nation with a “New Way Forward” to contrast with what she describes as Trump’s chaotic past.
However, projecting forward momentum is challenging if the White House fails to provide shelter and power to those affected by the hurricanes.
Failing to respond effectively could reinforce Trump’s criticism of the Biden administration’s performance during national emergencies. FEMA must demonstrate its capabilities to counter this narrative.
The possibility of another storm before election day could further consume media attention in the final weeks of the campaign, posing a greater challenge for Harris than for Trump.
The focus on political performance diverts attention from the true impact of the storms on families and communities.
Republicans believe that Hurricane Sandy in 2012 provided Obama with a platform to shine, potentially influencing the election in his favor. The impact of Helene and Milton might shift the focus away from Harris’s strengths towards Trump’s advantages in a closely contested race.
Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
