Alberta and Saskatchewan Will Not Implement Counter-Tariffs in Response to Trump’s Tariffs

HOUSTON—Alberta and Saskatchewan, the leading natural gas and oil producers in Canada, have opted not to retaliate as Ontario did after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25-percent tariff on steel and aluminum starting March 12 and on all Canadian imports from April 2, according to the energy ministers of these provinces during a press conference.

“We aim to de-escalate” the escalating trade conflict, stated Alberta’s Minister of Energy and Minerals Brian Jean while addressing the press at CERAWeek by S&P Global at the Americas Hilton-Houston.

“We wish to see the tariffs removed,” he added. “Engaging in a back-and-forth exchange of added costs on imports and exports will serve no beneficial purpose and will ultimately harm businesses and individuals who cannot afford increased energy prices. We need to keep their welfare in mind.”

Jean, along with Saskatchewan’s Minister of Energy and Resources Colleen Young, reiterated that there were no plans to respond to U.S. tariffs. Their statements came before Ontario Premier Doug Ford temporarily paused the 25-percent tariff imposed on electricity exported from Ontario to 1.5 million homes and businesses in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.

Ford lifted the charge after President Trump announced that pending tariffs on steel and aluminum would be increased to 50 percent. As of Tuesday evening, it remained uncertain whether the president would retract this increase.

Before Ford’s suspension of the Ontario electricity tariff, Jean indicated that Alberta would choose a different short-term route.

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“The advantage of Canada is that we have ten unique jurisdictions that operate independently,” he remarked, stating that provincial leaders are engaging in discussions with the Trump administration.

“Discussions are taking place. We’re presenting options that will appeal to the Americans,” Jean mentioned, without going into specific details, while suggesting that the Trump administration is focused on enhancing the country’s strategic oil reserve, which would require a consistent oil supply from Canada.

While Saskatchewan’s oil and gas production is relatively small in comparison, the province is abundant in critical minerals and other resources essential for new technologies.

Despite being the world’s largest natural gas producer, exporting over 4 million barrels a day of liquified natural gas, the U.S. still imports more than 4 million barrels per day of Canadian crude oil, according to Jean.

Trump’s promise to establish U.S. “energy dominance” relies on the daily intake of 4 million barrels of Alberta oil, he emphasized. “Without us, this won’t be feasible.”

He added that Midwest oil refineries are tailored to process only Alberta oil sand crude, and that energy imported from Canada supports over 200,000 jobs in the U.S.

“For the last 20 years, Canada has been selling oil and natural gas to the United States at a discount,” he stated.

‘A Nation-Building Moment’

Jean and Young indicated that while their provinces are not contemplating immediate responses to Trump’s tariffs set for March 12 and April 2, this trade issue has compelled Canada to address its infrastructural shortcomings, particularly regarding pipelines.

Alberta can currently produce 4.3 MMb/d of crude oil but has the capacity to “incrementally increase” that output to 6 to 7 MMb/d and potentially reach 8 to 9 MMb/d, according to Jean. He stated that “if a significant change occurs” as a result of Trump’s tariffs, “Canada will seek out alternative markets.”

Countries like Korea and Japan are interested in Canadian natural gas, and “European nations have also reached out to us,” he shared. “The reality is, we are exploring options in every direction except the United States.”

“To accomplish this, we need enhanced egress” via pipelines leading east to Hudson Bay and west to the Pacific coast, he remarked. “This is a discussion we weren’t having merely three months ago.”

“That dialogue should have taken place a decade ago,” Young added.

Jean expressed optimism that the U.S. and Canada will find a resolution to the dispute, asserting that issues can be resolved without causing disruption that adversely affects lives on either side of the border.

When asked if he had a solution, he simply replied, “Sure. Eliminate your tariffs and let’s return to business.”

He emphasized that there is absolutely no desire among Canadians to become the “51st state,” adding, “However, the truth is, the Republicans would never win another election if Canadians were included in the U.S. electorate.”

Prior to the press conference, Jean engaged in conversation with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, Ontario Energy and Electrification Minister Stephen Lecce, and Asokan Generational Developments LTD Founder and President Justin Bourque, under the moderation of S&P Global Commodity Insights Centre of Emission Excellence Director Kevin Birn, who is also Canadian.

The overall sentiment expressed was confusion regarding President Trump’s ultimate goals with his tariffs.

Moe articulated that Canadians are upset and frustrated by Trump’s “51st state” comments and questioned why he would insult a nation that has regarded the United States as its “greatest friend and ally” for over 150 years.

He pondered where the U.S. would acquire many essential minerals required for the developing digital economy and national security. Saskatchewan alone provides over 20 percent of the world’s uranium.

Lecce strongly critiqued what he termed a “very unjust attack on the Canadian economy,” highlighting that “9 million Americans woke up today” with electricity “because of the economic partnership between the U.S. and Ontario.”

He pointed out that the 25-percent tariff on aluminum is particularly troubling, noting that “60 percent of aluminum” used in the U.S. originates from Canada, specifically Quebec. There’s no immediate substitute for this supply.

Lecce warned that the aluminum tariff would increase prices on food and a broad array of products. “Costs are destined to rise as a result, which seems contrary to the objectives of government officials to make life more affordable,” he stated.

Additionally, he remarked that aluminum and other metals imported from Canada are critical to national security. “We’ve engaged with the U.S. Department of Defense, and they are eager for more titanium, lithium, hydrated nickel, and cobalt.”

Lecce concluded that the U.S. faces “a binary choice.” He emphasized, “Fundamentally, you can either purchase from your democratic partner, a stable friend that has stood beside you through America’s darkest periods, or you can choose to buy from Vladimir Putin.”

He noted that in a sense, this trade dispute has inadvertently united Canadians.

“The aim of President Trump is division,” he observed, “and it has failed. In my lifetime, I’ve never witnessed Canadians so united. This has catalyzed a significant surge in patriotism, nationalism, and a sense of nation-building.”