Could Donald Trump’s Influence Over Vladimir Putin Actually Resolve the Ukraine War in Just One Day? | World News

Donald Trump is likely to seek a resolution to Russia’s war in Ukraine that provides him with a “win” for halting the conflict, while ensuring Vladimir Putin does not come out ahead.

Importantly, any agreement must gain the approval of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has been diligently emphasizing the significance of Kyiv as a crucial ally to the incoming US leader, along with highlighting the global threat from an assertive Moscow.

Navigating this complex situation—following nearly three years of intense warfare, resulting in countless casualties and millions of displaced Ukrainians—will demand careful and deliberate diplomacy.

This kind of diplomacy was not always evident during Mr Trump’s initial presidency; however, his surprising and dynamic approach could introduce new dynamics that may facilitate compromises previously deemed impossible between the conflicting parties.

In a shift reflecting the harsh realities on the ground, earlier assertions from the president-elect about being able to resolve the conflict within a day have softened. General Keith Kellogg, his representative for Ukraine and Russia, now expresses hope for reaching an agreement within the initial 100 days of a Trump administration.

The United States holds unparalleled sway over the war’s direction.

American military assistance has been crucial in enabling the Ukrainian forces to withstand President Putin’s full-scale invasion, initiate counteroffensives, and maintain fierce battles in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, while also conducting their own counter-invasion into western Russia during the summer.

Any move by Mr Trump to curtail the influx of American weapons, ammunition, and financial support would severely undermine Ukraine’s ability to not only hold onto their territory but also to push back against Russian forces.

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European and other allied nations, despite their strong support for Ukraine, lack the military might to fill the significant gap that would be created if the US were to withdraw its backing.

Thus, the decisions made by the new president regarding Ukraine will significantly influence the conflict, regardless of the Ukrainian president’s or military’s preference.

However, the soon-to-be US commander-in-chief, who faced considerable criticism during his initial term for being overly friendly with Mr Putin, will be cautious about imposing any compromise upon the Ukrainians that may appear to the outside world as a concession to the Russian leader.

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Initially, President Putin aimed to take over all of Ukraine and install a government sympathetic to Moscow.

NATO remains a significant point of contention

There’s no indication that he has softened this goal; he remains focused on fully controlling the eastern territories of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas, as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south, along with obtaining assurances that Ukraine will never join NATO.

This land acquisition—while less extensive than his original plans—would still represent a significant win for President Putin. However, it’s possible he may be pressured to agree to maintain the current frontline as is.

President Zelenskyy has historically envisioned the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas captured after Moscow’s initial invasion in 2014.

Could British forces be deployed?

Nevertheless, in an exclusive interview with Sky News in November, Mr Zelenskyy for the first time suggested he might consider freezing the war along the current front lines, on the condition that Ukraine retains NATO membership for the territories it governs.

Even this appears highly unlikely. Mr Trump has previously echoed Mr Putin’s sentiment that NATO membership for Ukraine would constitute an intolerable provocation to Russia.

Nevertheless, a negotiated compromise between Kyiv and Moscow might lead to the deployment of NATO forces, including British troops, in Ukraine to secure the current frontline, uphold the ceasefire, and deter future Russian assaults.