A Victory is a Victory, No Matter the Method

Commentary

Participation awards are those lame awards that ensure every participant walks away with something in their hand.

The Dunkley by-election result delivered a similar outcome for the two major parties. The Greens, despite participating, experienced a significant decrease in voter support.

Although Labor won the seat of Dunkley with a degree of reserve in the margin, it is still a win for Jodie Belyea going to Canberra as the popularly elected member.

Despite the positive outcome for Labor, the result is more complex than a simple analysis would suggest. First-term governments tend to perform better in by-elections than in subsequent terms.

On average, the swing in by-elections for a first term government is around 1.5 percent. The Dunkley result suggests a swing double that size, which is a morale boost for the opposition.

There are still postal votes to be counted, which typically favor Coalition parties. This doubling of the usual swing can be confidently asserted.

Wins and Losses

Many factors should concern Labor despite being the incumbent in a by-election occasioned by the tragic death of the previous member. The swing against Labor was substantial, indicating potential challenges if replicated Australia-wide.

On the other hand, the Liberal perspective may see disappointment in not capitalizing enough on mid-term hiccups to turn the seat over, despite a healthy 6 percent swing in primary votes.

The Greens suffered a decrease in their vote, possibly due to their stance on certain issues. The by-election saw a swing to the major parties, which may have been influenced by the absence of other parties.

In conclusion, this by-election resulted in a win for Labor but also provided a morale boost for the Liberals, potentially affecting future general elections.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.