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Warning: Gas Shortage in Southern Australian States

The report cautions about potential gas supply shortages on ‘extreme peak demand days’ starting from 2025.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) predicts gas supply shortages in the future, particularly in the southern states.

It warns of shortages on extreme peak demand days from 2025, minor supply gaps from 2026, and larger supply gaps from 2028.

The report emphasizes that gas will continue to be utilized by Australians during the transition to a “net zero emissions future,” supporting the electricity sector.

The 2024 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) projects the adequacy of gas supplies in Australia up to 2043.

“The 2024 GSOO still foresees risks of shortages on extreme peak demand days from 2025 and the potential for small seasonal supply gaps from 2026, mainly in southern Australia, before annual supply gaps necessitating new sources of supply from 2028,” the report mentions (pdf).

“Gas consumption by residential, commercial, and industrial consumers is expected to decline, but production in the south will decline even faster,” it adds.

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The report points out that gas production in southern Australia is expected to decline more rapidly compared to gas consumption by residential, commercial, and industrial users.

“Although the extent of gas consumption remains uncertain during the energy transition, especially concerning gas use for electricity generation, all scenarios underscore the urgent need for new investments to ensure adequate supply,” the report details.

Winter 2025 Gas Shortage Warning

In 2025, there is a potential for gas shortages during winter in southern regions of Australia under ‘extreme peak demand conditions.’

In such circumstances, harsh weather might lead to increased heating demand as well as higher demand for gas-powered electricity generation.

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