Polling Data Indicates Trump Heading Towards a Close Victory

Former President Donald Trump is on course to win a narrow victory over President Joe Biden in the Electoral College in the 2024 presidential race, according to a new Stack Data Strategy poll.

The survey found that if the presidential election was held today, Trump would win 292 Electoral College votes to Biden’s 246.

However, Biden holds a slim lead in the popular vote over Trump, 49% to 48%.

Trump’s projected victory is based on him flipping four key swing states that went for him in 2016 and then went for Biden in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to the poll, these four states had the closest margins in 2020; Biden won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin by less than 1% of the vote.

According to the survey, there are significant swings toward Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania, with the former president leading by 3.3% in Georgia in the current projection, and 2.3% in Pennsylvania.

Despite Trump’s lead, races in the battleground states are close. The poll found that four states are expected to be won by less than 2% of the vote. Using the current estimates, Stack projects that Trump would win the vote in Arizona by 1.4% and Wisconsin by 0.9%.

“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win,” said Joe Bedell, head of Stack Data Strategy in North America. “Despite recent calls for change, our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate; President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin.”

While Trump and Biden are considered the most likely presidential nominees for their respective parties, they face challengers. Stack found there was no advantage to either the Republican or Democratic Party in changing candidates.

Trump would beat California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris in the Electoral College, while Biden would beat Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 359 to 179.

According to Politico, Stack is best known for its work with the National Republican Congressional Committee and the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party. The company also reportedly successfully predicted the 2022 midterm elections.

The poll was conducted Oct. 12 to Nov. 3 and surveyed 15,000 U.S. respondents. No margin of error was given.