3 reasons why the CIA will not order Putin’s assassination
As a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer specializing in Russia, I often am asked why the United States doesn’t just take out Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s president is clearly a bad dude. So far, in his barbaric 10-month war against Ukraine, Putin’s forces have bombed maternity wards, tortured civilians and abducted their children, shipping them to Russia by force. His missiles have pounded vital infrastructure, leaving Ukrainians without electricity or drinking water amid freezing winter temperatures.
His illegal invasion has also led to a global energy crisis and exacerbated skyrocketing inflation across the West. US leaders watch the conflict nervously, worried it could spiral into World War III.
For many, getting rid of Putin seems like an easy fix. But while the United States maintains a doctrine — albeit a secret one — that permits, in exceptional cases, targeted killings of foreigners, Washington will almost certainly not order the assassination of Russia’s strongman. Here are three reasons why.
First, the US Constitution prohibits the use of lethal force outside of armed conflict zones unless it is used against an individual who presents a concrete, imminent threat of grave harm to the United States and is participating in hostilities against the homeland — and only as a last resort. Putin does not meet this requirement.
It is true that the Central Intelligence Agency has targeted foreign leaders for death in the past. In the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, for example, the CIA maintained a top-secret counter-terrorism assassination program against high value targets such as al Qaeda commanders. Authorized by former President George W. Bush, this covert mission was performed by private paramilitary contractor firms that employ ex-Special Forces operatives.
From 1945 till approximately 1970s, the CIA ran covert operations targeting foreign leaders deemed a threat to the US. Among the targets were Cuban leader Fidel Castro, Congo’s first prime minister, Patrice Lumumba, Dominican dictator Rafael Trujillo, President Sukarno of Indonesia and President Ngo Dinh Diem of South Vietnam. Lethal viruses, explosive cigars and other spy-thriller type tactics were all used.
Around 1954, the CIA had 58 names on its “A” hit list of those to be assassinated, as part of its covert $2.7 million program code-named PBSUCCESS, aimed at the overthrow of Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbentz. But, following President Gerald Ford’s 1976 executive order that banned political assassinations by US government employees, the agency largely got out of this dirty business. A year prior, an 89-page report titled “Summary of Facts – Investigation of CIA Involvement in Plans to Assassinate Foreign Leaders” was removed from the National Archives.
Second, even if the CIA did get authorization for such an operation, it would be extremely difficult to execute. Putin and the members of his inner circle are under constant protection by the Federal Security Service. Putin himself is protected by guards from the Presidential Security Service, or “People in Black.” National Guard — or Rosgvardia — is responsible for the survival of Putin’s entire regime.
Rosgvardia, a special branch consisting of elite soldiers with decades of service in security and counter-intelligence, is headed by Viktor Zolotov, Putin’s close ally and a fellow former KGB operative. In the early 1990s, Zolotov served as the bodyguard for Anatoly Sobchak, then-mayor of Saint Petersburg, President Boris Yeltsin and, of course, Putin himself, who was then Sobchak’s vice mayor. And it is unlikely that anyone, outside of his very small inner circle, could get close to Putin.
Third, as an operative with decades of service in the KGB — one of the world’s most brutal intelligence services — Putin is highly primed for an attempt on his life, and he has likely concocted various contingency plans to ensure his survival.
As part of a hypothetical exercise in April, myself and a professional associate of mine, a military and intelligence psychiatrist, were both presented with the question — “If US special forces were closing in on Putin, would he kill himself or surrender?
“Neither,” we both answered.
My colleague and I assessed that Putin would try to flee, rather than commit suicide or capitulate. The spy master has likely developed multiple scenarios for his escape, and if plan A doesn’t work, he would execute Plan B, then Plan C.
Based on his psychological profile, Putin is likely to fight back, rather than give up. His hyper-confidence and arrogance pre-dispose him to believe that he could outsmart anyone. Were his life in danger, it’s likely he could come up with a solution that no one has thought of before, right on the spot.
As someone who has almost certainly authorized several assassinations himself, to eliminate his critics and political opponents, Putin is always thinking ahead. As he once said, “If you want to win, then you have to fight to the finish in every fight, as if it was the last and decisive battle. You need to assume that there is no retreat.”
Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, a former DIA intelligence officer, and the author of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.” Twitter: @Rebekah0132
